ATP Tennis April 6th

That elusive perfect day slipped through my fingers again. Thanks Aljaz. The swing from 4-0 to 3-1 really hurts when you are 30-someodd units in the red.

Tuesday

I get Musetti is stellar. But, as I mentioned in my outright preview, I just can’t get the numbers to these heights. The line opened within 1% of my number and the money has poured in on the Italian. I’ll probably take a beating here but both Bet365 and BM are hanging a +5.5. It’s Novak’s best surface and he showed in exho’s and in an abbreviated clay season last year, he can hang with better players (just ignore the RBA loss!).
I show value on Millman but he has lost every match this year and his career numbers on clay at the ATP level are not good.
Kovalik is basically a clay only kind of guy and I am happy to back him when I show value on the red dirt.
I show no value in Huesler/Broady or Cecchinato/Fabbiano.
Sousa looks like he has a nice price but, other than a couple of surprising wins in Miami, he has had a brutal two year stretch. I’ll pass on backing him. Simon always shows value but Gilles is the author, founder, and raison d'être for The List.
Love backing Vesely on clay in Europe and Marrakech. This is usually when Marrakech takes place and he has run really well there.

Picks:
Novak +5.5, -134, BM
Kovalik +2.5, -113, BM
Vesely -2.5, -114, BOL

Marbella

I show a little value on Vilella even with just Bet365 and 1xBet having the only lines up. But, it is so hard to tell where Zapata is at given he played Donskoy and Gulbis in qualies, two guys who literally do not care most days. So, I’ll have to pass on this one.
I’m in on Cerundolo. I show 7% value and I expect money will come in on him.
I show a little value on Lopez but, I’ve sworn off him this year due to his age and his non-on-court responsibilities.
I show value on Milojevic and like with Musetti/Novak I guess I am fading the wunderkid here. There are no books with spreads up yet but, given the ml’s I expect +4.5 to show and I’ll grab that.
I show a little bit of value on Kukushkin but his career clay numbers are terrible and Mager is hot, coming off a title right here in Marbella (that didn’t work out too bad for guys in Cologne last year).
Like Musetti and Alcaraz, ADF looks like an imflated line but I got burned with DD in this exact scenario last week when Tsitty walked all over him, so I’ll pass.
Martinez looks bettable (especially against a non-clay guy). I’ll have to tune in live though and maybe bet that on the fly as he pulled out against Sandgren with an injury and I don’t know where he is at.
Laak/Munar opened right on my number.

Picks:
Cerundolo ml, -123, BOL
Milojevic when handicaps open