ATP Tennis April 7th and 8th

Rough day, made worse by a poor live bet. Two of my futures barely survived late third dramatics. Went 2-4 and it could have easily been 0-6 I think. Not all markets are up, but the ones I want to bet are.

Wednesday/Thursday Cagliari

The market is certainly loving Musetti. And I guess what’s not to like given the beatdown he handed out on Tuesday. The line opened short of my number by quite a ways and money has only continued to drive it away. Even with 4.5 games I am not sure I can back Evans here.
I nailed the line in Djere and Millman. Djere 2-0 is something I am still considering. It’s kind of juicy at -138 though. Maybe if it was closer to +100.
I actually make Kovalik the favorite against Basher but given the heart attack match I watched on Tuesday it’s hard to back him here. Also, I am tentative to fade Basilashvili. He has posted back to back losses after the shock Doha win but both were three sets efforts where it didn’t seem like he was ‘just collecting a paycheque’. Clay is his best surface, so maybe we see something from him?
I am on Struff outright. And I am playing him here. It was touch and go against Sousa and hopefully that settles him a little. Broady has outrageous stats but he has played three straight qualifiers to get here. I am hoping a step up in class buries him. I am doubling down on Struff.
I show value on Hanfmann. Huge value. That sucks, since I am on Cecchinato outright. It seems early (obviously) to worry about hedging, so I may look for a live bet in this one if the German appears to be dominating the match.
There are no lines up for Simon/Sonego but there is no betting of Simon matches ‘round these parts.
I show value on Bedene here but like with Kovalik, is it worth the bet? He barely survived against a teenager I had legit never heard of. Pass.
My numbers like Martin here, he had an impressive win over Vesely on Tuesday and I am happy to fade a guy coming off a hard court match in Miami last Wednesday. This number dropped considerably after opening, all the way into the +130’s, and is now starting to bounce back up. If you wait a little, since the match is late Wednesday, you can probably get an even better line. I’m looking for +3 when BM opens.

Picks:
Struff -3, -118, BM
Martin +3, -110, BM

Wednesday/Thursday Marbella

Avoiding value on Berankis because of the ARV outright, much likewith Hanfmann/Cecchinato. Passing up Lopez because I obviously can’t price Alcaraz. Passing on Ruud because of injury in Acapulco. Passing on Ivashka because of same pricing issue with Alcaraz/Musetti. Passing on Fog, because, well, it’s Fog.

Picks:
PCB -3.5, -113, BM
Kwon +4.5, -108, BOL
Gombos +4.5, -138, Bet365