ATP Tennis April 9th

A nice day off on Thursday to just watch some tennis. This week has gone well, 10-6, +$300 and since the start of Miami I’m running 29-21-4, +$850. A long way to go but, not too shabby.

Friday - Cagliari

I’m within 5% of the number on Musetti, as the price has dropped rapidly since it opened. I’ve been trying to use 3% as a threshold but I think I’ll stay away. The second and third set on Thursday vs Evans were bizarre. And Djere is actually a clay guy - someone I considered outright. Should be an excellent match.
I’m already on Struff for the quarter - but numerous people have told me to ignore outrights when looking at daily matches so, as a man of my convictions, I’’m doubling down on Struff. He looked a little shaky at times on Thursday morning but the final scoreline was solid and Basher could collapse at any time.
I showed excellent value on Hanfmann yesterday and passed it up because of the outright on Cecchinato. That was a dumb move. Sonego has taken enough money since the open that I now show value on Hanfmann. I’ll take the plus games and I expect Hanfmann to hold serve, a lot.
The Bedene/Fritz line is basically right at my number. I do kind of like the over there.

Picks:
Struff -2, -122, BM
Hanfmann +2.5, -108, BOL

Friday - Marbella

I show value on Kwon again and I’m going to back him. It’s a big number, he’s played great so far this week and PCB is only into his second match. I have no problem with a 4-6,4-6 loss.
I nailed the Ramos line. Here’s hoping the outright survives and Kwon upsets PCB!
Is Ruud back? He’s healthy? He looked it. This should be the match of the day and I’ll back Ruud on a really cheap line.
I, along with everyone else I’ve talked to, apparently have no idea how to price the ‘new’ Ivashka. This is an easy avoid.

Picks:
Kwon +4.5, -109, BOL
Ruud -3, -107, BOL