ATP Tennis February 22nd/23rd

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Well, yesterday was gross. Harris was a nightmare. Popyrin won and missed covering by a game, that always hurts. But, opportunities galore tonight and tomorrow with 22 matches on the docket.

Singapore

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I don’t really show any value on Uchiyama nor Polmans. Which kind of surprises me because Uchiyama has a solid 2-0 head to head and hasn’t dropped a set to Polmans. The issue is Polmans is getting weighting because Uchiyama has had such a bad start to the season. Uchiyama has atrocious stats in 2021. Neither guy is proficient on indoor hard courts and both are losing tiebreak players, both have the exact same travel schedule and both are local (relatively speaking). If I had to bet this I would take Uchiyama on a cheap moneyline just because of the head-to-head but, really this is an easy pass.

Albot had a messy 2020 and he has only 9 wins in the last two seaons combined. However, fun fact, he is 6-3 at covering the -3.5 games in his 9 wins. That’s bizarre. I don’t show any real ‘value’ on him based on my numbers but this is almost irresistible. JP Smith is one of the best fades in tennis, at least at the ATP level. Smith is 1-16 for his career at the ATP level on a hard court. Albot obviously turned things around last fall after starting the year 0 for about 100. And those matches down the stretch were indoors. Albot is a 55% winner indoors in his career. I like that too. I’m going to find a way to bet Albot.

I show a 4% edge on Duckworth. I think I may still have PTSD from betting Duckworth against FAA at the Aussie where he threw away points at an incredible rate. Thankfully, Hanfmann is not FAA. Hanfmann has not beat someone ranked in the top 100 on a hard court since he beat Andreas Seppi at a Challenger event in 2017. And that was his only win. Ever. Duckworth is plenty competent and he’s covered -2.5 games in every single win he has had on a hard court in the last two years.

Celikbilek has been very kind to me. He is also an over machine. I make this line closer to -600 but am a little worried about laying -4 games. Seems like a parlay. And three sets.

Picks: