ATP Tennis February 24th
Time is… not of the essence. Who needs sleep.
Picks:
Zapata-Miralles/Davidovich-Fokina u22.5, -109, BM
Popyrin + Humbert ml, -180, BOL
Cordoba Picks:
I make Delbo a huge favorite here. This line (and the one yesterday versus Sousa) are putting the quarter price to the graveyard. At +162 to win the quarter, he is already well beyond that with just the first two mathes.
So, what do I like outside of the line value? Well, one, the line is moving heavily toward Delbo - not obviously as far out as I had him but Delbo was as low at -110 this morning around breakfast and is just now -140. At least the market seems to like him.
Their head to head is pretty dated (they haven’t played in four years) so I am not sure the 4-2 lead for Delbo is relevant but it can’t hurt. Delbo also just has better clay court stats across the board when in comparison with Bagnis - there is a significant hold/break difference, significant career winning percentage, and Delbo is better in tiebreaks (although that is more like who’s the worst loser?).
I think what really interests me is the elevation. Delbo is not “amazing” at altitude but he now has four wins here, he has four in Gstaad, he has five in Kitzbuhel and he has eleven in Sao Paolo. He can win on clay up in the sky. Bagnis, likewise, has 22 wins across those same four tournaments but there is one difference this week. Delbo is not necessarily travelling to get to elevation. Bagnis played last week in the coastal town of Concepcion, Chile. Concepcion is hard on the coast, essentially at sea level (12 m or 40 ft) and Cordoba is up in the Sierras Grandes (500m or 1500 ft). That can’t be a fun travel spot. There were loads of guys from Concepcion in the draw (both qualifying and main). We’re down to six and Barrios was gifted the sixth spot as a lucky loser (and is fading hard versus Kovalik as I write this). This will be Bagnis’ fifth match in six days at altitude and that is after coming from Chile.
I’ve missed the best of the number (and I’m already on Delbo for the quarter) but I am in at -140 on the moneyline.
Delbonis ml, -140, Pinny