ATP Tennis February 27th

Hey, I won a bet. Then I won another. Has the tide turned? Jesus, I hope so.

Not much time to write as I am working on Rotterdam and Buenes Aires and some race car stuff.

Singapore

The court time differential between Bublik and Albot is silly. Bublik is playing exactly as I foreshadowed in my outright preview and he hasn’t been past nine games in a set yet. He’s dicey on serve but breaking serve at a phenomenal rate. I expect both trends to continue.

I show value on Cilic but I find that hard to trust given how he has performed the past two years. Also, Popyrin has played incredible so far, winning all three matches fairly handily and holding serve a whopping 95% of the time (he’s only been broken twice). I would expect Popyrin runs into some nerves in his first semi-final. But, it might not be till late (see Kwon). Popyrin hasn’t been broken in the first set yet and Cilic has only been broken once (he broke right back). I’ll go with my numbers and the ‘experience’.

Picks:
Bublik -2.5, -116, BM
Cilic -2, -113, Pinny
Cilic/Popyrin o10.5, 1st set, +150, x0.66
Cilic/Popyrin o12.5, 1st set, +225, x0.34

Montpellier

I don’t have a lot to say here, as I basically nailed both lines. Goffin opened in the -150’s but has climbed to my number and although I could have jumped his number early, I am not a fan of betting on Goffin. Also, I have somhow worked my way into a position where I am cheering for Gerasimov to win the title. That’s scary. For that reason I’ll probably be looking at Goffin live if he gets an early lead. In fact, given that Gojo is the only guy not looking at Rotterdam and he is the most outclassed guy left, I’ll be looking at both matches for live unders or second set spread bets. You lose the first set on Saturday in Montpellier, you are already half-way to the airport.

Cordoba

Picks:

ARV ml, -110, Pinny