ATP Tennis February 26

Things are going swimmingly. This tweet describes my life:

Singapore

I show a lot of value on Mannarino here. That is largely because of the weighting in my formula and how bad of a 2020 Albot had. If I even out the weights, though, I still show some lean to Mannarino. Not enough to be paying 3.5 or 4 games worth but still something. Mannarino dispatched Marcora in pretty straight forward fashion - he generated 10 break points in eleven service games, he broke him three times (which is right in line with his career hard court numbers) and he didn’t do anything otherworldly on serve. This is still good news though, given the trouble Marcora caused last year in Pune. Albot was dead lucky to get through that match yesterday against Hanfmann; he saved two match points (albiet on serve) on the second set, stole a tiebreak 9-7, and then was down 1*-3 in the third set before reeling off five straight games. I’ll take Mannarino to get by the Moldovian.

I have an outright on Bublik and really, I show this line being flipped. That’s concerning (I thought we would see more out of Cressy on an indoor surface, but I also didn’t know it would be this slow). I could see this easily going three sets due to each guys tendency to drop a set and ability to break serve (Nishioka is usually around 25% and Bublik has gotten his break percentage above 20 this year) and the fact that these courts are playing kind of slow. The over is 22.5 and the 3 sets market is +137. As it is, I’ll just watch and pray for Bublik (I am not religious, my prayers suck).

I make Kwon the favorite here. He’s let me down tons of times in the past. But, Cilic has been having a rough two? three? years. Kwon hasn’t faced many “servebots” on tour and Cilic isn’t Isner or Karlovic but, Kwon did beat Raonic last year on an indoor hard court. His return game is solid and he should be able to frustrate Cilic into a bunch of errors. I was worried Kwon would be fatigued after playing three straight weeks on three different continents (let alone in three different countries) and winning last week. He has seemed fine after he settled in against Kwiatkowski.

I show a lot of value on Popyrin here. It’s kind of shocking the way Ebden dealt with Millman considering Ebden is usually much better on faster surfaces, like grass. Popyrin is holding 93% of the time this week and has only been broken twice - both times at the business end of the second set as he was closing in on a win. Popyrin should be able to eek this out, although the over and the 3 sets markets are both interesting.

Picks:
Kwon ml, +112, 1xBet
Mannarino + Popyrin ml, +113, BOL

Montpellier

RBA has had an ugly start to 2020 but, he was gifted a win on Thursday and maybe that is what you need to kickstart things. Even trying to factor in RBA’s pre-tournament form I still can’t get this line below -200. So, a pick’em seems like a gift. Humbert played three tiebreaks against Tallon Griekspoor (who may be improving but at 25 it isn’t like he is a prodigy) and he needed a second set tiebreaker to get rid of Gombos in round one. The apparent ease with which you could say he got through Gombos is eaily contrasted in the fight with Griespoor - against Gombos Ugo landed 70% of his first serves and converted both break chances he generated. Then against Tallon he regressed hard, landing only 58% of his first serves and converting only one of nine break chances. The real Ugo is obvioulsy somewhere in between. I don’t think Ugo is yo-yo-ing back to the form he showed against Gombos and I also don’t think that his ‘somewhere in between’ form is going to be enough to take down even a struggling RBA.

I’ll happily stay away from this match. I show a massive, massive egde on Dennis Novak. Maybe he is worth it but being so very far away from the market probably means there is something off. Gojo has had a rough two years and as far as I know it wasn’t injury related so, that explains my line. Back to back upsets of Struff and Vesley might help explain why the market is backing him a little (not to mention maybe people longing for the days of Gojo’s surprise indoor hard court title in Metz?). I would back Novak just based on the fact that of their combined four wins, I think Novak beating Lajovic is the best one. Either way, I think it just best to pass. Neither guy has a ton of ATP level data over the past two years to compare this weeks hard court numbers to.

I guess I am suddenly a huge fan of these two gents. I foolishly thought the winner of the tournament would be one of Hurkacz, Sinner or Murray. They were all in this quarter so I hedged my bet and just bet on quarter three prodcuing the tournament champ at +162. All three of them lost in their first match. So, cue the Egor flags? He is usually great on indoor hards and I am sorry I avoided betting him so far this week. But he did face one of my favorite guys to bet on and a legend of the sport. So, is it too late to get on the wagon? Nah. I make Egor the favorite here so, I’ll take him as a dog on his favored surface. Fokina took a roll of the ankle late in his match and though he was able to fight through it the kid has a decent history of injuries and sometimes those kinds of injuries are worse the next day. Egor is not serving any different at all this week - he’s won two tiebreaks, one in each match, which is his MO (ADF is a losing tiebreak player at both levels), he’s holding serve 90% of the time (he was at 85% in each of the last two years) and he’s logging double digit aces. Where he is overperforming is at breaking serve - he’s up around 30%. That could regress hard. But, if I have to rely on tiebreaks, I feel confident in that.

I try not to bet Goffin matches. I never have a read on him and I can’t say, given his recent form, that I am surprised the market has him as a dog. For my future’s sake, I kind of hope he wins because I could see Egor or Fokina beating him.

Picks:
RBA ml, -107, Pinny
Egor ml, +120, BOL