ATP Tennis Jan 1, 2022
The 2021 season went… not well. So, I obviously spent the last 6 weeks tweaking. We’ll see what that brings in 2022.
I have avoided the ATP Cup the past two seasons but, why not shake things up!
Friday night/Saturday
I’m really excited that the lines look so close to my model. Six of the eight matches pop with some kind of value.
Ruud and Delbonis both show marginal value, just a little bit above zero. I’ll gladly avoid Delbo as he went a whopping 0-10 on hard courts last year and 0-3 indoors specifically (which is where he plays tonight). If anything, I’d almost be tempted to take Metreveli on the handicap. Ruud should win but the 2-0 and even the -4.5 were juicy. Maybe a live bet if he looks like he is going to roll.
Maj is right on the cusp, with moderate value of 5%. Pervolarakis has been to both editions of the ATP Cup and he is 0-5. But, he did cover the +5.5 line in one match each year. Both matches were at the end of the week and didn’t mean anything though - in matches that “counted” he was shelled. This might be another live option if it looks like the Greek is outclassed early.
I show intermediate value on RBA, just below my desired 10%. Assuming my model has ‘improved’ in the off-season I can possibly push for bets in the 5-10% range. Garin is generally poor on hard courts and RBA is generally great to kick off the season (both here specifically at the ATP Cup and in Jan-Feb in general). So, I’ll give it a go.
I show full value on DSS. I missed the best number but I’m still happy with it. I guess the one scary thing is Basil is a super low floor, high ceiling guy. He could blow DSS off the court if he shows up (see Doha, 2021). Here’s something you don’t think about often - maybe being indoors will actually HELP the Argentine? Basil has a losing record on indoor hards in his career and his big weeks (titles and deep runs) have come on clay or outdoor hards.
Finally, I show full value on Tsitsipas, largely based on their head-to-head record (not only is it 6-2 for Stef, it’s 4-0 Stef indoors) and Tsitsipas’ overall indoor record, which is incredible. The line is super depressed and is actually heading away from my number. I initially wanted to bet Hubie simply based on Tsitsipas’ potential health. And that would seem to be the general market thought as well. But, I think I’ll stay away from both sides. If Stef looks out of shape or simply in ‘work out’ mode (considering his country has no shot at this event anyway) than Hubie may be worth a live look.
Play:
RBA -4, -108, BM
DSS -2.5, -115, BOL