ATP Tennis Jan 2, 2022
I’m probably not the only guy in the world that looks at a 2-0 day and says, damn, if I had bet all my edges I would have went 5-0. Nothing like disappointment.
Starting 2-0 is a great kick off though, here’s hoping it continues.
Saturday night/Sunday
I show intermediate value on Rinderknech. I held off for two reasons; one, I am still working on separating indoor and outdoor hard court stats (hopefully done by end of Q1, 2022) and Rinderknech has considerably better numbers indoors which kind of skews his hardcourt data; two, weirdly Rinderknech is 26 and has never travelled to Australia or New Zealand as far as I can tell. Maybe that hinders him, maybe not. But, I passed.
I show marginal value on Meds and I hit it anyway. Ugo hasn’t played since September, he ended the year 0-5 including some losses at the Challenger level and he won only one match (Sonego on a hardcourt) after leaving the Olympics in Japan. So, I’ll take Meds to roll a potentially out of shape Humbert.
I show almost full value on Berrettini. De Minaur had a rough 2022 and I guess I am kind of banking on that continuing until I see different. They are outdoors, so that should help ADM chase down some serves and make this competitive. Moreover, hopefully the court aids Berrettini’s return game and he can break ADM at least once.
I show full 10%+ value on Isner. I just can’t back a 36 year old. Much like indoor/outdoor data, I am almost done my age based research and I just can’t throw money at a guy who may be very different than his priors indicate.
I show full 10%+ value on Fritz. It’s indoors, so that should help the American’s serve. Neither guy had much success in Australia before last year where FAA lost in the final at the made up Murray Road event and made the fourth round of the Aussie while Fritz had Djoker on the ropes at the Aussie Open. To be honest, I am not sure how much stock to put in FAA at Murray Road anyway - he beat the 104th, 78th, 70th, and 80th ranked players (and Vesely retired in the second set) before losing to Dan Evans (badly, in a final, again). Regardless of the numbers, I think FAA has close to the most potential on tour and he is still only 21, so, I am pretty nervous here and took the plus games.
I show marginal value on Evans but, I’ll gladly stay away given his career success indoors and Struff’s unpredictability.
Plays
Meds -4.5, -118, BM
Berrettini -3, -108, BM
Fritz +2, -110, BM