ATP Tennis Jan 12, 2022

I turned a winning night into a losing one by adding Kuznetsov late. He went 0/9 on break points.

Sydney

Aslan is one of my outright picks and Kec is not super strong on hard courts so I don’t mind the -2.5. I am far more nervous with Goffin and Naka; both of them being guys who like to drop a set. Only my second parlay of the year.

I’m scared off the moneyline on Baez because young guys, especially dogs, tend to fade late against better opposition - I probably should have looked at the +1.5 sets market.

I avoided Basil because Murray’s data isn’t really right so I know my line is not true. I show no model edge on Cressy but, I’ll bet him when the time comes. He should roll Lajovic given his current form. Guessing my model just can’t catch up fast enough to his showing last week.

Picks
Karatsev -2.5, -117, BOL
Baez +3.5, -103, BOL
Nakashima + Goffin ml, +133, BM

Adelaide

So close on Moutet. Man, my model loves him.

I show value on Paul but maybe not enough and he burned me last week against Taro fucking Daniel. And then got pumped by Monfils.

I show value on Cilic, SJ and Isner but I am going to avoid all three for different reasons. Munar is holding serve 93% of the time so far in 2022. It’s a small sample but in an interview he claims he worked on his serve all off-season and made some changes. KA, Laaksonen, Cressy and Millman is a not a murderer’s row of returners but Cilic isn’t Andre Agassi on return either. So, I actually think a good move here might be the over. It’s a cheap 22.5 and will be my first total of the year.

This is the third SJ match this year where my line is way, way, way off. Like wrong side of zero off. I can’t really put my finger on why. Plus, Vukic rolled Bublik, which surprised me.

I won’t be betting a 36 year old Isner this year. In fact, I want to bet on Kokkinakis as a small favorite (much like Cressy above, I think the model is just behind) and will probably throw a few dollars at it tonight.

Picks
Cilic/Munar o22.5, -103, BM