ATP Tennis Jan 14, 2022

Nakashima folded. As did Vukic. Thankfully, Vukic won his tiebreak, so the over landed.

I’ve spent the last 18 months trying to mostly avoid parlays… forced one last night and was promptly punished. Machac easily covered his -4.5 spread. So dumb.

Now 1-2 on the year with parlays and 1-1 on totals. Markets I will continue to try to avoid moving forward.

Sydney

Evans hasn’t lost in 2022 and he has only been broken once (incredibly just last night vs Cressy). You can of course parse this a bunch of ways - Struff was pretty garbage for a top 50 player in their opening match, Shapo was in his first match while Evans had had a warm up, Isner is 36 and looks it, Martinez is top 60 but not because of hard courts, and Cressy was exhausted and playing his second match in a few hours. But, regardless, you play who is in front of you and Evans is 5-0 and hasn’t dropped a set. Aslan has only played two matches but they were both against quality competition and he is breaking serve 33% of the time. I feel like he’ll put up a much better fight and maybe trouble Evans a little. Plus, we’re at the business end of the event and remember Evans is 31 and has made a whopping three finals. I guess I am doubling down (on Karatsev outright)

Picks
Karatsev ml, +100, Bet365

Adelaide

Lines look dead on again in Adelaide.

The over doesn’t look bad with Cilic/Kokkinakis and if you don’t mind some juice it is -138 at Bet365.

Aussie qualies

Escobedo -3, -114, BM
E. Gomez ml, -109, BM

I threw in four small bets for fun on Lehecka -3.5, Machac -3,5, Skatov ml, and Safiullin -3.5. It’s not for a normal amount, I don’t think the lines are off, I actually think the three spreads might be a half game too high. But, I like all four guys, think all four guys win outright and I think all four lack sufficient data for me to make a great price. So, won’t add to public record either way.