ATP Tennis Jan 21, 2022
Man, if you had an Andujar ticket, congrats. Most of my losses end up in this bucket - Molcan created 18 break points in 18 return games, bagelled his opponent in the third set and not only didn’t cover, he didn’t even win the match.
That’s how you go 1-2.
Friday night/Saturday morning
I show value all over the board but, I’m not going to bet any of it.
Andujar won 68% of his second serves across the first three sets on Wednesday. It plummetted in the four set to 17% yet he still won the set going away. That’s bizarre all around. Especially considering his career average is 48%. Regression should continue and I suspect this line, in my model, is largely inflated toward Andujar. Additionally, De Minaur’s stats are conversely supressed because he hasn’t played anyone (Musetti on a hard court, Majchrzak).
I show value on Taro Daniel but, I can’t get in front of the Sinner train and I am on the Sinner outright anyway.
I show value on FAA. His two performances so far in Melbourne should really scare anyone off betting him. He has really struggled and his only previous match against Dan Evans was an embarrasing smokeshow. Like Sinner, I also have an outright on FAA, so I am plenty comfortable sitting this one out. Furthermore, given it’s a pick’em I’ll probably be looking to hedge on Evans if FAA gets in trouble.
Medvedev has entered Novak/Nadal territory; whereas he is so much on a different tier that he is hard to model. I can’t get his ml high enough and so, I’ll gladly avoid Botic.
I show the smallest amoung of value on Rublev and I’ll happily bet it. Cilic has played two qualifiers, neither of whom would consider hard courts their best surface. It’s not like Rublev has played stretcher either (Mager and Berankis) but he has absoluetly trucked them. Monfils is the only guy left in the draw who has lost less game than Rublev and he has only been broken once on serve. More importantly, Rublv is breaking serve 52% of the time. That’s wild. It’s obviously a super small sample but, that bodes well when facing an aging Cilic. He might get one more match before regression bites.
Picks
Rublev -4.5, -119, BM