ATP Tennis Jan 28, 2022
All outrights are dead due to some hesitant play from Sinner and a nice collapse from FAA.
Three matches left to see if I can bring the year into profit before the end of the first month.
Semi-Finals
I show value on both favs. So, looks like a chalky Thursday night. Nadal I show a full 10%+ edge at every book, any number. Lots of people will make noise about the five set work against Shapo but, really that was Nadal’s first real tough output. Berrettini had to go deep with Monfils too, so it’s a bit of a wash. Additionally, there is a full two days off for Rafa to rest up and prepare. If you look at time spent on court… Rafa is way below the other three. He’s played 31 fewer games than the next closest person. Most importantly, I think the under-reported stat from 2022 so far is how dominant Nadal has been on serve.
There is zero chance if I threw out a quiz to anyone about who has the best hold percentage amoung the semi-finalists that anyone would have guessed Nadal. But, he has been broken only 8 times in 2022, through 9 matches. Pretty incredible. Remember he started 2019 this way too - only to get wrecked in the final at the Aussie by Djoker. However, Matteo Berrettini is not Novak Djokovic on return. In fact, Matteo has easily the worst return/break percentage of anyone left in the draw. By a lot. I expect Nadal to be refreshed and he should roll.
Tsitsipas has rightly taken money in the market. I get that. He steam rolled Sinner and Meds struggled mightily with FAA. However, I think the head-to-head does matter a little, I think Stef’s propensity to fall apart in big moments at slams vs Meds recent resilience (and by recent I mean post 2019 US Open fifth set!) matters a little, and I think their hard court stats matter - Meds has better hold/break numbers in every season on a hard court. And it is all in the return. He can keep pace with Tsitsipas on serve. But, his return numbers are decidely better. I don’t show as much edge at the moment in relation to the market but I suspect if you wait another few hours… the market will continue to fall toward the Greek and that magical 10% will show up for Meds.
2019 US Open repeat, anyone?
Picks
Nadal -3, -116, BM
Medvedev -3.5, -120, BM