ATP Tennis March 10
Wednesday is a pretty loaded slate of tennis (18 matches!). Especially in Doha, where we get Thiem-Karatsev which, like it or not, is going to be a referendum on Karatsev’s skill level and staying power in the top 50 (if the ohh’s and ahh’s during his first set on Monday is any indication). Thiem-Karatsev will be followed by the return of Federer, who gets a surging Dan Evans in his first match in 14 months - Evans won his first title four weeks ago in Melbourne. And before we even get to those two we get Rublev vs Gasquet - new vs old, current boy wonder vs one-time boy wonder, power vs style; man I wish it was the Gasquet of even two years in this match.
Doha
I’m on record fading Thiem this week due to a possible lack of motivation and a bit of a look ahead spot. I’m also on record, kind of vehemently, backing Karatsev to not fade away after his surprise Aussie Open. My model nailed this line so, I feel like I’m kind of already right. Karatsev looked like the Challenger player he’s been the last seven years in his first on Monday then looked like the Aussie Open Karatsev as he bagelled the second set. I suspect he loses a close match here and if anything, I would look at the over, which is oddly set at 21.5 instead of 22.5.
I wonder what motivates RBA? Does anyone know? Top 20 guy, almost ALWAYS (hasn’t been outside the top 30 since early 2014), nine titles, seventeen finals…. shuffled to the outer court at a 250. I show some value on the Spaniard here but there’s a couple of worrying things. Is he actually motivated to be here? He’s won big here before so he should be but it is pretty hard to tell with Dubai on deck on for these top guys. He’s lost to Bublik before, when Bublik was still a teenager no less. And he struggled mightily in his last three matches - collapsing from a set up against Goffin in the final in Montpellier, losing in straights in Rotterdam and then struggling through Opelka on Monday. I think the play here is Bublik on the spread or the over if you have to play it.
Probably the match I’ll watch the most just because I really like two dudes in it. I show value on Gasquet but that’s probably just because I can’t get lines high enough to match -800 type moneylines. Rublev should really roll but you just never know with Gasquet these days. He’s a true “on his last legs” star where you could get stars or you could get a black hole. He own a very workman like match a guy he should destroy on Monday - he didn’t face a break point but only served up two aces, he took advantage of his chances by converting two of three break points but… he only generated three break points against Blaz Rola (not great). I expect Rublev to generate too much speed on the his shots for Gasquet to keep up with and I could see a similar match here to Rublev’s match last week with Murray - a tight first set and then a live bet on Rublev as he runs away with the second set.
I show value on Fucs and I am happy to back him here. It’s a slower court than the one he lost on to Harris in China. Harris won’t be playing someone who doesn’t care this time (Stan in smaller tournaments is always guesswork) anf Fucsovics is also in solid form (see, last week). Harris was able to fend off seven break points against Wawrinka and it feels like with the form Fucs is currently carrying that he’ll have more luck breaking serve here.
I don’t bet Goffin matches. He is a terrible favorite. Additionally, I have an ill-advised quarter outrigh on the Belgian. That being said, I do show value on Goffin, the medium speed courts should help him keep up with Fritz’s serve. Fritz barely got by Sonego on Monday while Goffin is coming off one of his best service performances in quite some time - he didn’t face a break point and he won 82% of his points on first serve. His only loss since the Aussie was to a peaking Chardy and Fritz is essentially a younger slightly better serving version of Chardy (Fritz is 23 and a 85/18 kind of guy the last two years; when Chardy was 23 in 2009 his hold/break stats were… 82/19) - you have to think Goffin will figure it out. I hope so, anyway.
I show value on Popsicle and I wish this was oan indoor court. I guess I’ll take the plus games. Pospisil is 22-12 on a hard court (indoor or outdoor) dating back to Jan 1, 2020. His three blowout losses werer to ADM, Meds and Rublev. Pretty cream of the crop right there. The rest of his losses were close and competitive, including a 76,64 loss to Shapo. Shapovalov is 2-4 in 2021 and he beat a reality tv star and a 19 year old coming off a title win 24 hours earlier. I think Vask keeps this close and probably steals a set as one guy maybe looking ahead to Dubai and one won’t be.
I don’t care how much Basil has lost in the last two seasons, I am down to fade Jaziri at all costs.
I am sure Fed will struggle. I mean, I only make him a -300 favorite. But, he is 3-0 vs Evans, he has never dropped a set, Evans saved 100 (mild exageration) break points yesterday against Chardy and has to come back 24 hours later against one of the greatest of all time. My guess is, even if Fed is sloppy, which he is sure to be, Evans won’t be able to capitalize.
Picks:
Fucsovics -2, -114, BM
Pospisil +3, -112, BM
Basilashvili + Federer ml, +109, Bet365
Basilashvili/Jaziri u22, -110, BOL
Marseille
Picks:
Gerasimov -3, -124, BM
Khachanov -2.5, -125, BM
Tsonga/Humbert o22.5, -110, bet365
Santiago
Picks
No picks