ATP Tennis March 11

Oh, so close to a big day. Alas, Tsonga’s aged out and Pospisil folded at the very end.

There is precious little I like on todays card.

Doha

I show value on RBA, Fritz, Rublev and Basil… and I think I want to avoid them all.

RBA has better hard court stats across the board than Thiem and has beaten him three times on hard courts - although none even remotely recently. Thiem’s the ‘better’ player though and the surface is probably average enough speed that I am not interested in RBA.

Fritz and Shapo have super similar hard court stats and really, on the face of it, Shapo is below 0.500 across the last 15 months on a hard court. I would think the market has taken off in Shapo’s direction because of the head-to-head record. I’m thinking Fritz should cover the +2.5 but that’s an even smaller line than Vasek got yesterday and I got burned by a game on that one.

I’m loathe to back Rublev again over Fucs given they played so recently - those kind of repeat head-to-head’s usually flip flop. But, I do still show value and Rublev is basically the hottest player on tour not named Djokovic.

I’m guessing I don’t show a proper line on Fed because of his lack of recent stats. Given Basil’s woes the past 15 months I don’t see how he beats Federer though. So, maybe I can work a moneyline parlay here.

Marseille

I amazingly don’t really show any value on any match in Marseille. I nailed the Meds-Egor line; the ADF-Rinder line is off simply because I don’t have any ATP data on Rinderknech; the Norris value is only 2% and is easily avoidable as Norris is 0-2 against PHH and went three sets with Constant Lestienne yesterday; and finally, I show a tiny bit of value on Pouille but, he is still not ‘back’ and hasn’t beaten anyone in the top 150 since the summer of 2019.

Santiago

I actually see a bunch of stuff I like on clay.

I’m on Garin outright and I see value on him against fellow countryman Tabilo. Garin hasn’t won a match since October but he should have knocked the rust off against Nagal and Tabilo won’t return serve near as well as Nagal did. Tabilo has never been past the second round of an ATP tournament and this feels like a ‘get right’ match.

Coria has played well at elevation so far this year (semis in Cordoba) and I show massive value on him. But, I am going to have to pass on this potentially cheap spread because of the head-to-head. Varillas has beaten Coria three straight times, all pretty recently, all on clay, all in South America. Might be a live look on Coria if he looks good early.

I show value on Andujar and while he doesn’t have an overwhelming record in South America he has wonderful records inboth Gstaad and Kitzbuhel, the two clay events at extreme altitude in Europe. Galan’s upsets on clay against the top 100 have either come on the Challenger Tour, in Houston against Americans, or in pandemic-fuelled French Open last fall. Galan’s three wins in 2021 have been against an aging Tommy Robredo in three, the 386th ranked player in the world and Altmaier this week, barely.

I show value on RCB, he is great at elevation (see Quito) and Cerundolo has to tire at some point. But, I can’t fade this guy - especially considering his performance both here and in Cordoba (could have an altitude guy here).

Picks:
Rublev + Federer + Garin ml, +114, Bet365
Tsitsipas ml, -900, Bet365 rollover
Andujar -3, -112, BM