ATP Tennis May 5
3-1 feels close to perfect but, if watched Shapo, you never had a sense he was really going to win that match. Bad bet by me.
Madrid Wednesday
I show value on Alcaraz but I can’t fade Nadal for any price. Despite the uproar over his (remember, only TWO) losses, when he has won on clay so far this year it has still been dominant plrenty of the time. Before losing to Rublev he dropped four combined games in Monte Carlo. After getting sorted out against Ivashka, he still bagelled Nishikori and routined a top ten guy in PCB.
I feel the same way about Sinner. I can’t quite get the line up high enough but, I can’t fade Sinner. This is also Popyrin’s fourth straight week of travel and tennis, which I don’t like.
How can you back Millman or evans on clay? Two of the surprises of the clay season square off and although I show a little value on Millman, I am not interested.
Is Zverev still hurt? He has had some really wild losses this year, post Acapulco. He played doubles yesterday and won in dominant fashion, so I’ll trust that he is most of the way back and conversely, I’ll trust that Kei’s fitness is probably still an issue after a three setter with Khachanov.
Isner and RBA have played five times and all five have been relatively close. Isner cruised in round one while RBA did… whatever he did against Cecchinato. The match is at 2000 feet which, while on clay, I have think helps Isner (28 aces in two sets!!!). As well, the fact that Isner had Tuesday off and RBA gets no time off after that deep third setter, has to sit in Isner’s favour.
Much like the ADM-Harris match yesterday, I just don’t think I have the data to make a line here. ADM was so terrible in 2019 and 2020 on clay that I can’t use data to get his lines on clay right. Likewise, Karatsev has no ATP back beyond January (at least not meanigful data). So, this is a pass.
Nishioka was injured in qualies and had to retire but, was fit enough to come out Tuesday and blow Krajinovic off the court 2 and 3? Right. I’ll pass on this.
I try not to bet Paire matches, regardless of the value offered.
I show a little value on ARV but I have to pass. The head-to-head is 6-4 in favour of Delbonis and both times they have met at altitude (here and in Geneva) Delbo has won in straights. Pass.
I’m back on the Garin train, so help me…
I’m down to fade Meds on clay if the price is right. I think ADF may even win.
Picks:
Zverev -3, 112, BM
Isner +2.5, -111, BOL
Garin -3.5, -110, Bet365
ADF +2.5, -111, BM