ATP Tennis May 7th
An ugly day, where I went chalk and the tennis world went dog. Every dog covered the spread and I was on three favorites. Just brutal.
Friday Madrid
I’ve always said the more data a player has the better I can get the lines. Never more true today. I take some (a lot?) of flak for some of my lines being way off - it’s just lack of data, really. Or crazily/ubruptly changing data. Not so today. Lines are smack on.
Nadal-Zverev I pretty much nailed the line. No value on either side. Weird head-to-head too, where Nadal won the first five in a row and Zverev has won the last two, albeit both on hard courts. I’m guessing the altitude will help Zverev here (obviously) and if he can stave off the nerves, he should cover a juicy +5.5 or push a +5. If Popyrin can serve his way to six games, you’d have to think Zverev can get seven. The total is kind of low here too, sitting at a flat 21. That seems ripe, although pretty correlated to a Zverev cover. Pick your poison, I guess.
Thiem-Isner I did actually nail. Right to the penny. Usually I would avoid this but, I think there is value in Thiem. The line is right but I think he can cover here. Thiem is obviously better on clay than anyone Isner has faced to date, he is pretty close to being just as adept at Isner at holding serve (89 to 96%) albeit in a little different fashion, and I think a big thing here is Isner will be playing for the third time in three days on clay at altitude. The elevation may help his serve but it also eventually has to play havoc on his seven foot body. Additionally, Isner’s return game has plummetted to near career low level (5% right now). So, he’s going to be even more reliant on the tiebreak and while he benefitted from playing Rublev in two tiebreaks, Thiem is no such push over in a breaker (Rublev career 48%, Thiem career 54%, it’s a big difference at the ATP level).
I show massive value on Ruud. I guess I didn’t learn anything yesterday and I am going to fade Bublik again. He can’t possibly serve up 14 aces again, can he (Bublik only had 8 against Fucs and 10 against Shapo in three sets). Another weird scheduling tidbit means this is also Bublik’s first back to back matches at altitude after having received a Sunday-Tuesday-Thursday beginning (the only other player to get that was ADM).
Sticking with Berrettini. Have the outright on him, show 4% value on the line on Friday. His serve has only been broken once and if comes to tiebreaks, he is not only better at them than Garin, he is also fresher (Garin’s fourth straight week of action and travel plus he’s played four rounds here).
Picks:
Thiem -3, +105, BM
Ruud -3.5, -106, BM
Berrettini -2, -110, BOL