ATP Tennis May 8th

Thiem missed covering by a game… and so I missed the perfect by a game, again. Man, the margins are just so tight.

Madrid Saturday

I make Thiem the favorite and I am happy to take him at a dog price. His hold/break stats on the surface are better than Zverev’s despite this being Zverev’s best surface (it’s also obviously Thiem’s). Most importantly, for all the talking of Zverev’s serve - Thiem holds more often. Again, as with Thiem/Isner, he may hold in the same WAY but, he does so more often. Zverev is actually breaking serve more often but that should even out, given the fact that one of Thiem’s opponents was the (almost) unbreakable Isner and Zverev is hitting about one quarter the aces Isner is this week (Zverev is averaging 0.53 aces per game, Isner averaged 1.81 aces per game; side note, Isner’s lowest total this week was 18 in three sets vs Thiem and that alone is more than all of Zverev’s aces combined this week).
In addition to the statistical advanatge, Thiem has an overwhelming head-tohead advantage on Zverev. A lot of times 1-1 or 2-1 or 2-3 doesn’t matter. But, 8-2 is a bit of a different story. And I don’t think this unique venue helps Zverev at all - Thiem has beaten him on just about every surface that matters. Thiem has won four of the five times they’ve played on clay, he’s won two of the three times they’ve played on slower outdoor hard court surfaces, and he’s won BOTH of their indoor hard court matches on quicker surfaces.
Of course, many will say, notably, Zverev’s one big win over Thiem came here in the final in 2018. I would posit that was a better Zverev and a worse Thiem. In 2017 and 2018 Zverev won nine titles, including three Masters and a Nitto. Across 2019, 2021 and 2021 he has won four and two of them were made up 250’s in his home town. Conversely, Thiem, since that 2018 Madrid loss has gone on to win eight titles including a US Open* and a Masters as well as make five huge finale (3 Slams finals and two Nitto finals).

I wanted to bet Ruud here. The price has moved so much since the open (that I missed) that I almost have to take Berrettini. Instead, I am simply going to avoid the match. The Ruud-Berrettini match last year in Rome weighs heavy on me. I was on Ruud that day and I really felt Berrettini should have lost even worse (my life is filled with unnecessary sweats). Ruud had nine break points that day, of which he could only convert two, and he served a woeful 59% - both way below his career numbers. In fact, Ruud has won both their clay court encounters and the one at the French Open was more of the same; fifteen break points generated this time, a better serve percentage (65%) and straight sets for Ruud. To top of any historical slant to Ruud, Ruud hasn’t been broken on serve this week in four matches (38 straight games). So, it would seem the altitude is helping him as much as any one. I think my angle here will be to see if Ruud has some early nerves and ifhe gets behind in a service game, or even broken, I’ll grab him at closer to plus money. If he gets broken early, his past matches with Berrettini prove he should have lots of shots to get it back.

Plays:
Thiem ml, +120, Bet365
Ruud in play maybe