ATP Tennis Toronto Day 2

I bet on Kyrgios, against my better judgement, on Monday, produced a losing 1-2 day. I really thought the tweaks to my model might be able to get rid of the disaster that is trying to handicap him and a few others but, it doesn’t seem like it. Kyrgios, Paire, Tiafoe, Gilles Simon; these guys have proven “uncappable” for me over the years.

Tuesday

I show value on Basher and while I should probably run far away from that, Brooksby is coming off a career defining run in Washington - he held serve 46 times in 49 service games. This is the same guy that was losing to Ulises Blanch when he retired two weeks ago in Lexington and who then lost to Kokkinakis in the next round. I expect a small step back here and +3.5 games is just wild.

I show value on Kec but that is an easy pass. As I’ve said ad nauseam in the last three months, with Kei having no data in 2020, it’s pretty hard to model him.

Fade Isner! He’s basically 0.500 in Toronto/Montreal, the courts are slower here than in Atlanta despite the similar humidity and I feel like ADF might be best on hards instead of clay. I show value here and it’s worth a stab.

It’s nice to see Nishioka’s number come in a bit, so I don’t feel too crazy. He was over +200 last night at Pinny. I still show loads of value and +3 looks tempting. Of course, I never bet Tiafoe matches, so best of luck if you do.

Dimitrov? Again? I can’t remember the last time I won a bet backing this guy. Dimitrov hasn’t won a match against a top 50 guy since, like, the Aussie. So, this is probably a dumb bet. But, Opelka went three hours in the night heat with Kyrgios last night and maybe there will be some fatigue.

Picks:
Basilashvilil +3.5, -120, BM
ADF +1.5, -105, BM
Dimitrov ml, +120, Bet365