ATP Tennis Washington Day 5
I won a bet. Shocking stuff. Thank you Jenson Brooksby.
Washington Friday
I show value on Harris but like every Kei match in 2021 I am happy to avoid it, as the Japanese star didn’t play in 2020 and therefore my formula has a pretty large margin for error in it. Easy pass.
I don’t show any value in MM/Kudla. The line looks pretty close. If Kudla takes anymore money throughout the day on Friday, I may have to throw in on MM. I am a little worried that Kudla could pull the upset here given the path MM has benefitted from. He got a Kyrgios who may not have cared, a Paire who may not have cared, and Ivashka who was into his third match off a flight from Tokyo. Quality names but, Kyrgios and Paire are two of the more mercurial and unpredictable guys on tour and Ivashka is clearly not a regular at the business end of 500 level tournaments. It’s not like Kudla has beat monsters either - Lopez is my age, Fritz is probably the best win of the six, and Nakashima was clearly dominating the match on Thursday until Nakashima hit a wall (like Ivashka he was off a flight from Tokyo). Anyway, probably an easy match to stay away from.
Is Sinner back? I avoided him on the outright market because he had literally won one set since the third round of the French Open on June 5th. That’s a rough slide. But, he seems to have righted himself. He has beaten the Atlanta semi-finalist and one of the more promising young players on tour so far this week and hasn’t dropped a set yet (although the second set on Thursday may have been more Korda losing it than Sinner winning it). I’ve happily faded SJ all three rounds so far this week, so why not make it four in row! I show value on Sinner and if he is right, he is the far better player. With the way the draw has shaken out, Sinner is the clear favorite left in the field (market leader in-play at +187), and other than Lloyd Harris he is the most rested player (they both played just one round in Atlanta and didn’t play in the preceeding weeks) in what is turning out to be a war of attrition style tournament (Harris has played only 38 games so far and has spent 3:08 on the court; Sinner has played 44 games and spent 3:15 on court). I think things are lining up for Sinner to get back on track and maybe add a 500 level title to the two 250’s he already has.
I show value on Millman and I am so hesitant to make this bet. I backed Nakashima yesterday and he clearly ran out of gas after looking great in the first set (after barely holding serve for 4-3 in the third set, Nakashima lost 12 of the next 13 points to end the match). Now, Nakashima had gone 5 rounds in both Los Cabos and Atlanta so Millman’s fatigue is/could be different. Both Millman and Nishikori are left in the draw from the Tokyo entrants. Millman only played two rounds so, he conceivably left Japan two or even three days ahead of Kei and has had more time to acclimatize. Conversely though, Nishikori had plenty of rest leading up to Tokyo, having not played in the preceeding weeks while Millman went Wimbledon, Sweden, week off, Japan, and now the US. I don’t suspect, given his success in Newport that Brooksby is going to get nervous and give anything way, so Millman is going to have to earn this - and wins over Elias Ymer and a potentially injured Opelka aren’t confidence inspiring. It’s the lead match of the day and I can get +3.5 so I guess I’ll jump in and look for a live way to get out if Millman gets up early.
Picks:
Sinner -3, -120, BM
Millman +3.5, -109, BOL