ATP Tennis Toronto Day 4

Finally a winning day. Those have been like nocturnal animals you only see on National Geographic infra-red cameras. What a bad play on ADM. What the hell has happened to him? Very similar to FAA, he’s very boom or bust this year. He’s only made it out of the second round five times in 2021 but those five times have produced two titles (Antalya and Eastbourne) and a semi final (Queens). Anyway, he got thrashed by Basil. Very bizarre.

Thursday

I show value on Duckworth but that seems scary. Duckworth and Tiafoe are the only two players left in the draw who went Tokyo-Washington-Toronto. And now it’s day four in Toronto. I’m not sure any formula I create can account for that kind of potential fatigue.

I show value on Rublev but he is 0-2 against Isner and he didn’t seem super confident about todays match:

I show value on Tsitsipas and I hit that last night. The line has moved even more to Tsitsipas but it is still -3.5, just juicier.

I took a flyer on Opelka/Harris 1st set tiebreak. Opelka has played 14 matches and 37 sets on hard courts this year. He has played 18 tiebreaks and 19 sets without tiebreks. That’s 49%. So, +120 felt nice.

Picks