ATP Tennis Toronto Day 5

A nice live bet on Meds made it TWO winning days in a row. To quote Lou Brown, if I win today… that’s a winning streak.

I show a 1% edge on Medvedev. Not bettable by my current methodology but, maybe one day. I’ve long believed (when I actually wrote breakdowns) the way to bet Meds is live. He is a ‘momentum breaker’. Look at last night. Ducks holds serve twice in a row, then Meds break him three times in a row. I live bet RIGHT after that first break of serve and he broke again in the very next return game. If he breaks early he rolls. If not, it’s going to be a battle. Probably do the same tonight.

I show value on Monfils. That’s not surprising to me. Isner has long struggled with Monfils. I’ve been avoiding the Frenchman’s matches in 2021 (and 2020 to be fair) because he hasn’t seemed like he was “into tennis”. I’d like to think because he’s through three rounds here in Toronto, he’s “back”. But, he got a bye in round one, he beat Millman in round two which doesn’t mean much (Millman is having an awful 2021, he’s won back to back matches exactly twice in 2021), and he beat Tiafoe in round three which again doesn’t mean much (I love Tiafoe, but it’s well known I don’t bet his matches; he is one of the highest ceiling-lowest floor guys on tour; when he is on, it’s fire, when he is off, he’s gets breadsticked). So, what to make of Monfils? I think discretion is the better part…

RBA had a very mediocre grass and clay season. But, if we rewind to the spring, he went finals in Montpellier, finals in Doha, and semis in Miami. Along the way he scalped Ugo, Thiem, Rublev, Medvedev and today’s opponent. Now, he did fail at the business end of all three of those (in incredible fashion versus Goffin in Montpellier, Jesus) but, I don’t need him to win a title today. He’s 2-1 against Opelka and predictably, Opelka has the win on a quick indoor court and RBA has two wins on medium paced outdoor hards. That’s what we’re on today. And he has never had problems generating break points against Opelka’s serve either - he went 2/4 and 2/11 in his wins and 2/5 in his loss. Also, I highly doubt Opelka can replicate the 3/4 on break points conversion rate he had in his win over RBA in Basel.

Picks
RBA -1, -117, BM