ATP Tennis Washington Day 1

I haven’t made my way through the qualies results yet, so just some comments on the five matches today that don’t have qualifiers.

Washington

I show value on Nishioka, as I actually make him the favorite. But, I am going to avoid him as I don’t want to be bcking players who are coming from Tokyo if they are not also playing someone coming from Tokyo. Sock is playing for the four straight week on the east coast, so it’s hard to decide whether the consecutive activity will be tiring or if the actual lack of serious travel will save him.

I show value on Querrey but and Nishikori is coming from Tokyo. But, a lot of the value on Querrey is generated by Kei’s lack of data in 2020 and 2019. Additionally, Querrey has three first round matches in a row, arguably all matches he should have won. This is an easy pass.

Gerasimov and Ivashka are both comig from Tokyo, they have played six times, splitting the series, and they both excel on faster, indoor courts. The conundrum comes from the fact that Ivashka has covered -3.5 all three times he has beaten Gerasimov but yet, Ivashka is 0-3 in Washinton. I’ll take the +3.5 and the over is probably a good look too.

Tommy Paul is 3-0 against Galan. They are both coming from Tokyo, I show tons of value on TP. I’m on the -3.5.

Anderson won a nailbiter against Brooksby in Newport and then had a good showing against Kyrgios in Atlanta. I think he is still a class above Brooksby, who was lucky to get by Ulises Blanch last week in Lexington and then lost to a lesser version of KA in Kokkinakis.

Picks:
Gerasimov +3.5, -109, BM
Paul -3.5, -110, Bet365
Anderson ml, -128, BM