ATP Tennis Washington Day 2
Greetings from lake country.
Washington Day 2
Broady, Purcell and Saville were the only three guys in qualifying who were in Tokyo. And none of them made the main draw. Nishioka ran out of gas last night, as I predicted. Nishikori and Giron both played in Tokyo and won in round one here but both guys played opponents who were on decent losing streaks and were playing for the fourth week in a row. So, I’m going to stick with the potential Olympic fatigue angle.
I show no edge between Sandgren and Duckworth and both guys were in Tokyo.
I show some value on Kyrgios. And that’s a scary thing. But, he is “defendng” a two year old title here and he’s got the spotlight on him (again) because of his runaway mouth. So, I expect him to show up tonight and then fade away later in the week. Additionally, MM hasn’t beaten anyone in the top 50 on a hard court since the Aussie.
I show value on Lopez and I am tempted, as he has beaten Kudla in the past. But, he is coming straight from Europe, having plyed the last three weeks straight on clay. Kudla is not in any kind of form but, Lopez is pretty old to be playing this kind of schedule.
Nakashima is coming off back to back finals. This should be a fade spot. But, his stats are just lights out at the moment. Washington is a medium-fast court and BN should be able to adjust pretty quickly . Popyrin has won one match (on grass) since the beginning of May, so it feels like even if Naka gets off to a slow start, he should be fine. A fun bet might be Pop first set, Naka match.
I show value on Ruus. He played great in Atlanta and this should be a huge step up in class for Gunny.
I show value on Johnson but, I don’t like betting him as a fav. Both Johnson and Ram have played four weeks in a row now and Ram came through qualies with strong results. Pass.
Love to fade the Ymer brothers. Thompson should be an avoid based on his activity but, like Nakashima, the activity comes with such strong results. SF, QF QF, three weeks in a row. I show value here, so I’m going to bet it.
Giron is on Tokyo watch - I show value but he may run out of gas today.
I show value on Pospisil but that is largely because Korda lacks data. Easy pass.
I show value on Berankis and Kec is a soft favorite most times. Additonally, Kec is coming from Tokyo. I’ll grab the +2.5.
I show value on Tiafoe but, I have long avoided Tiafoe matches and I’ve learned my lesson fading Brooksby, I think. So, I’ll just cheer for Frances from the sidelines.
I show value on Seppi almost all the time - backed him in Atlanta and Los Cabos. So, that is something I should probably look into. For now, I’ll blindly stumble ahead and bet him on the plus games fading FAA.
Picks
Kyrgios -2.5, -119, BM
Nakashima ml, -137, BM
Ruusuvuori -4.5, -102, BOL
Thompson -2.5, -115, BOL
Berankis +2.5, -110, Bet365
Seppi +4.5, -115, BM