ATP Tennis Washington Day 3

If I wasn’t already pretty numb, Jordan Thompson put me over the edge. What a loss to Elias fucking Ymer.

Anyway, on to Wednesday. Feels like my lines are getting tighter, which is confidence inspiring even if the results aren’t there yet. Might, finally, also be time to start taking moneyline shots on some bigger dogs - not Seppi sized dogs but, certainly Berankis sized ones. Hope springs eternal.

Lots of lines for Wednesday not out yet, so I may re-visit this. I’ve put my lines in here for anyone interested when lines do open. Either way, it’s time for a few dock drinks.

Washington Day 3

I don’t show any value on Nadal/Sock - lines are pretty close to what I have. I am really interested in Sock though. He’s lost all five matches with Rafa but played some tight ones. He’s been pretty balls out on serve across the last few events but lacking on return. If he can hold serve a few times, 5 or 5.5 may not be out of reach. I’ll see if this line creeps up even further before first ball. It’s been pretty steady since open but, maybe the Rafa name will elicit a few dollars before tomorrow night.

Not sure I’ve nailed too many openers right on the penny. So, nothing in Harris/Sandgren. Feels like with Sandgren’s poor form though, if Harris looks hot to start, may be a live look at the South African to run away with it.

I show value on Bublik but that is probably just due to Kei lacking data in 2020. It’s not worth the risk. Also, Nishikori got a key (no pun intended) day off on Tuesday to help combat his travel fatigue. I’ll just keep avoiding Nishikori matches for now.

I can’t believe Dimitrov is a dog here. I’m going to chalk it up to bookmakers looking at his long layoff and his absence from hard courts since March. But, Dimitrov ran pretty well on hards to start the year and he had good losses, especially in hindsight (very college football-like strengthening of the schedule once the season progressed). Losing to Karatsev at the Aussie and Norrie in Acapulco doesn’t seem at all a big deal in retrospect. Ivashka has a poor record in Washington, is coming from Tokyo and just has lesser hard court numbers than Dimitrov in general.

Don’t know who Paire’s opponent is going to be yet.

I see no lines on Fritz/Kudla. My line on Fritz feels low. I could see -250 or even -300.

I show value on Nakashima but I am going to lay off. I took an outright position on Evans based on his hard court success in the winter and I think Nakashima may finally hit the wall on Wednesday if he has to play back to back days and he is going to be on court right in the heat of the day at 2pm.

I show value on Sinner. And I am tempted. But, Sinner has lost four matches in a row dating back to the French and he has only won one set since that bagel to Rafa. If he looks great to start I may jump in live but, I can’t back him as a favorite, no matter what my number say.

No line on ADM/SJ yet but, I want to be on ADM.

I show value on Opelka. Feels like he wins but doesn’t cover the -3? Galan surprisingly was “unbreakable” against Tommy Paul. Can Opelka break him twice? Or get lucky and serve first in one of the sets to grab a 76,63 or 63,76 kind of win? Maybe I can parlay Opelka’s moneyline with something tomorrow.

Ymer/Millman? Fuck that.

Picks
Dimitrov ml, +105, BOL
mayeb some more tomorrow