Istanbul CH January 20th

Hey, the Challenger Tour is rough. At least for me. I don’t even know what to say about the losses. Tough times. Through 14 first round matches it is dead even 7-7 between favs and dogs. And I have been on the wrong side, almost every time.

Onto Wednesday where it’ll be the last two first round matches and four second round matches.

I mentioned yesteday that the Zhang/Bagnis line is way off mine - completely reversed. Now, since I posted that the line has come back significantly (Zhang dropped from -330 to -243 in the last 15 hours). It’s still not enough though. Someone tweeted at me that Bagnis has been in COVID isolation and if that’s true it could explain this. Pass.

I show value on Huesler now but Istomin is in as a lucky loser and that’s always dangerous. As I mentioned earlier in the week, he has a really nice history in Istanbul and he may put up a scary challenge to Huesler.

I can’t get a read on Menezes. I’ve faded him twice already this week and obviously lost both times. He is has won a tiebreak in the first set in three straight matches and then watched his opponent disappear in the second set each time. At least this time I’ve nailed the line. I’ll pass on this.

I show a small edge on Kovalik and I’ll bet it. These two have played twice, both times on clay, and they’ve seen some pretty topsy turvy sets. Kovalik showed impressive fight against Celikbilek and I’ll back that when I can get +150.

Griekspoor is 24-12 on indoors across the last five years. It seems his serve plays well on a little quicker courts. Soeda is a crafty vet with a likewise decent indoor record but, he’s sitting on 36 years of age - he got his win on Monday and I could see him going away here. I show an 11% edge, so I'll grab the spread.

I was happy to fade Gaio yesterday and I was happy to take Safwat as a dog on Monday. I almost get both scenarios again on Wednesday. Safwat is as low as -119 at BOL. He’s on a day’s rest and he’s off to a great start in 2021.

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