Istanbul CH January 21st
Finally a winning day. Could have been even bigger too if Griekspoor could have closed any of his third set break points - 4 for 13 on the match is just literally right up my alley. I have one of those types of matches every single day.
Also, it’s finally nice that I righted the ship with CLV. After a rough start the first two weeks of the season, the last three days have been stellar. Griekspoor’s -2 was the only bet the last 48 hours that didn’t beat the close. A good sign.
I show all of these lines being off. I make all four of these matches pretty much a pick’em.
The value on Bagnis I’ll ignore as his hard court record is abysmal. That win on Wednesday over Zhang was only his third on a hard court at the Challenger level - ever. He’s 30 years old. That being said, the -3.5 spread seems a tad high for Huesler. He’s dropped a set in all three matches he’s played in 2021 and he only covered a -3.5 once last year on hard courts. Pass.
I show a little value on Rinderknech and this line is the closest of the four to what I produced. But, I scraped these lines a few hours ago and as I write this, even more money has come in on Rinder and he is now under +120 and the spread has dropped to +1.5. Kind of wish I hadn’t had such a busy lunch hour, probably would have taken the +2.
I have no read on Musetti. I didn’t think he would take to the hard courts and he did just fine. I wouldn’t make him this big of a favorite and the market has moved toward Bonzi all day. Still, easy pass.
I show tons of value on Giustino here and this feels like a match I can get involved in. I’m going to by-pass the side, although the +3.5 is tempting. Hoang is a master of the long match. 16 of his 28 hard court matches in 2020/2021 went three sets and 19 of the 28 cleared the 22 games total. As for Giustino, he doesn’t play on hard courts nearly as much but 10 of his 18 hard court matches in 2020 went three sets. The 22 is available at North American facing books, I’ll take the o21.5 at Bet365 for a juicy -125.
Picks
