Quimper CH January 27
The end of the day was kind of a piss off but overall things are going swimmingly. I’m just going to post about Quimper today because, well, I mean, fuck Antalya, man.
First, I thought it was a hard court… it’s not. I have no idea how I missed this. First time this has ever happend. Four years, 65-70 tournaments a year, I guess maybe it was bound to happen. Second, it’s been raining since Saturday. They are a full four days behind in the schedule now. No idea if they can even catch up. Third, I’ve already posted my picks for round one… twice!
Quimper
I think the Pouille match is an easy pass. He is head and shoulders the best guy in the draw, or was before 15 months off. But, ya, he’s had 15 months off. The line is pretty indicative of what the market thinks. In 2019, Pouille is what? about -400 here? Higher? Easy pass.
Marterer went 8-4 to close out 2020 on indoor hards. He won one title and his four losses were to Hoang, Taro, Huesler and Karatsev. That is not a bad list. Ofner ended 2020 with four straight losses and he was breadsticked in all four. He started 2021 out not much better, losing 26,36 in the first round of Aussie qualies. Marterer coverd -3.5 in eight of his wins down the stretch on indoors in 2020 and I expect him to get off to a decent start here. He has better hold/break numbers on hard courts across the last three years and when they played on a quick surface, albeit in 2017, Marterer won and covered the -3.5. I make MM almost -500 so, I’ll dip into this.
Rinderknech is coming off a title in Istanbul and I am guessing that is why the price is so low? Cornut, much like Cazaux on Tuesday, might be a solid youngsters but he hasn’t accomplished anything at the CH level. Rinder is 9-1 on the year so far and in those nine wins he has only failed to cover -3.5 twice - Bonzi in the final and Hoang; nothing wrong with those.
I’ve been trying to work on ‘recency’ in my tennis model. And maybe I overhsot. After one solid event, Bonzi is -196 to Huesler based on my math. Huesler lost a tight one to Rinder in the quarter-finals in Istanbul and will have had the better part of five days to rest up and travel. I think the market has a better read on this with the match closer to a pick’em. I might be interested in a +1 or a +1.5 games if more money comes in on Huesler before the match - I do think Bonzi could lose close.
There is no line for Lestienne/Istomin yet but I am not sure I would bet it anyway. I faded Lestienne in round one and he spanked Kudla. Istomin is hard to pin down - he’s 34 and hasn’t been good for like two years.
I like Nakashima and Barrere even though my model doesn’t show value on either of them. I think BNak (saw that on Twitter today and am totally using it) will run over Gaio and I think Marchenko could run out of gas against Barrere. I’ll go off the board a bit here and parlay them.
Picks:
