Quimper and Antalya CH January 26th
Nothing better than going 1-0 because three of your bets were pushed back a day. Can’t beat that. Especially when Barrere’s win was relatively sweat free.
There is a plethora of action on Tuesday, starting at 4am EST and carrying right through till about 3pm. Really, these are my favorite kinds of days. I can watch tennis all day.
Antalya’s action was post-poned from Monday so, I’ll just re-post my thoughts here:
I show value on Mayer and Munar but, I will pass on them just because it’s their first match of the season and their respective opponents have both played four matches across two weeks.
I’ll pass on Ilkel as I am already on him outright as a serious longshot.
It looks like hitting Giustino was a good call, as he has gone up twenty cents over night. This is probably due to the head to head history and the fact that Kolar hasn’t won a match yet in 2021. I show Giustino with a better hold/break number on hard courts every year, so I am comfortable with this and expect the line to close even higher.
I am on Escobedo outright and I certainly expect him to get through round one. If it was indoors or on grass, it might be a different situation but Ram is vulnerable on medium and slower courts. This line has come in a bit so that is a little worrisome, especially because I can’t find a reason for it.
Finally, I am on Musetti. He surprised with a solid effort on quicker indoor courts in Istanbul, he’s obviously match fit already, and really this is pretty much just a fade of Tabilo. Tabilo has decent hard court stats, relatively speaking but he has been shell shocked to start 2021, losing badly to Hugo Dellien on a hard court and Go Soeda.
Quimper
Just how far has Gojo fallen that he is a +200 dog to a 22 year old Polak with barely any matches above the ITF tour? Bizarre man. I can’t bet this. I actually have Zuk favored based on how bad Gojo has been but -250 seems steep and there is enough action on the board that this is an easy avoid.
Man, I think Kudla is going to be guns a-blazing. Hard courts certainly aren’t his best surface but how motivated must he be after having to pull out of the Aussie qualies, where he most likely would have qualified given his path? He ended 2020 on a solid run, winning Cary and then losing a tough three set match to Eubanks the next week. He finished off Benchetrit in week one of this season pretty easily too, which is not small feat. I think Kudla gets it done.
I’m always down to fade Janvier. I show plenty of value on Nakashima here. The pressure should be off him as he bombed out of Aussie qualifying. Also, I’m taking what appears to be a low over - Nakashima is a three set machine.
I show massive value on Yannick Maden. Maden is better in every category I look at on a hard court and Fabbiano hasn’t played an indoor hard court match since he went 3-9 on the surface in 2019.
I doubt Marchenko is “back” or ever will be. But, he should be able to handle an 18 year old French kid fresh off the ITF tour who hasn’t played a game yet in 2021.
I show a little bit of value on Couacaud but I don’t want to bet against Rodionov and this be the match where he turns around what was a pretty sub par 2020.
I basically nailed the Bourgue and Korda lines - within 2% on both. Easy pass. Especially when I have the outright on Korda.
Picks:
