ATP 2022 Australian Open Preview

After two weeks of warm up events Down Under, Sunday night in most of the world and Monday morning in Australia brings us the ‘Happy Slam’. Or the ‘Vax Slam’. Or the ‘Anti-Djokovic Slam’. Take your pick. Either way, that will be as far as this blog goes into politics.

The Aussie Open has been around since 1905. It’s gone through a few iterations, moving from amateur to professional with the dawn of the Open Era in 1968, going from a December event to a January event in 1986 and finally changing surfaces from grass courts to hard courts in 1988. It has also played around with the speed of its hard courts more than just about any event; and to extremes too - going from one of the faster surfaces on tour to a crazy slow surface in 2020, allowing Dominic Thiem to make a surprise finals appearance, then back to a super slick, super fast surface in 2021, giving rise to Aslan Karatsev and a finals appearance for Daniil Medvedev. It appears, if the event in Melbourne a week ago is any indication, the organizers have kept the paint closer to 2021’s version than 2020’s.

What does that mean for the field? It probably means tournament favorite Daniil Medvedev will enjoy the conditions and with favourable scheduling will probably avoid most of what is turning out to be a super hot Australian summer. Which means what it always means at the Aussie Open… favorites come through in the end.

There have only been two winners since the turn of the century who were priced outside 10/1 - Stan Wawrinka in 2014 and Thomas Johansson in 2002. But, could this be year number three? Despite what would appear to be a pretty clear elite tier of ATP players, the current top ten is facing a host of issues. Djokovic is 34 and… out of the tourney due to some unique circumstances; Nadal is 35 and has not won here since 2009; Medvedev is coming off his first Slam in a sport where no man has won his first two Slams back to back (in the Open era); Zverev is dealing wth off-court issues, nervousness on the court, and a rough set of 2021 Slam results after his 2020 US Open final (which also did not end well); Tsitsipas does not look healthy yet after his surgery; Rublev has never made a semi-final at a Slam and the only other Slam winners on tour are either not present (Stan, Thiem, Delpo) or are named Marin Cilic (who hasn’t made a Slam quarters since 2018).

Let’s take a look at the field and see if there is a bigger priced winner out there.

It is pretty hard to model Slam outrights given the fact there have been so few winners and the sport is so top heavy AND Slams are generally the only events were all the top players are in attendence. Keeping all that in mind, there appears to be only a few players who show value at their current number when comparing this model with Bet365’s outright prices.

Pablo Carreno Busta’ s price is big and he’s drawn into a potentially wide open first quarter now that Novak is not playing. PCB has had some wonderful success on hard courts including two US Open semi finals and making the fourth round here at the Aussie in both 2018 and 2019. So, those are pluses. The negetives would include the fact that PCB’s 2021 Slam performances were very sub-par and in the only match he played that mattered at the ATP Cup last week he got waxxed by Shapovalov. It’s pretty hard to say if he can take down Zverev or especially Nadal in a semi-final. It is even harder to say whether he take Medvedev in a potential final. However, his path out of the first three rounds does look reasonable and a fourth round match looms with Berrettini. Berrettini hasn’t lost to anyone at a Slam ranked outside the top 5 since 2020 but he also did not perform great at the ATP Cup and his small section is no cakewalk with both Nakashima and Alcaraz. A quarter outright on Carreno Busta when prices re-open might be an option but a tournament outright seems unreasonable even with a little bit of value showing.

The other player who shows value in the first quarter is Carlos Alcaraz. He had a great 2021… for an 18 year old. His resume is still light in five set matches. His run to the quarters at the US Open was halted by a retirement and he has yet to play a match in 2022. So, it’s pretty hard to lay money on him to win a tournament or even a quarter. At least, this time.

There is no value left in the second quarter. I tweeted out a suggestion to take Alex Zverev at +600 back in October. That was pre-draw here and pre-Milan, where he again won the Year End Finals. Zverev’s number is now +300 and he landed in the quarter with the worst floater possible - Rafael Nadal. The quarter of death… to steal a soccer term. If you took Zverev at 6/1 prior to Milan, congrats, you are sitting with a decent ticket (and I’ll be cheering along with you). It’s pretty hard to recommend him today at 3/1 or less, so that bet won’t be listed here.

In the third quarter there is plenty of value. It’s wide open. Tsitsipas is not 100% healthy, Andy Murray is on a bad hip and probably a tad old and tired, Bautista Agut is great in January every year but somehow never great in Slams ( at 33 years old he has made two quarters and one semi), and Basilashvili can flake out at any time. Dimitrov shows a great number versus this model and is almost always great in Australia (28-11 with 4 quarter-finals) but, he can never close the deal. Fritz shows great value against this model but at 24 years old he has never made it past the third round of any Slam and is maybe too much of a miniature servebot to make a deep run at a Slam. Casper Ruud shows significant value. He is slotted at the top of the third quarter, which it could be argued is the most wide open in the event, even including a top quarter with no Novak. Ruud had a breakout campaign on hard courts in 2021, going 23-10 and winning a title in San Diego. He will eventually have to go through both De Minaur and Sinner, the two toughest floaters not named Nadal. But, the bottom half looks very vulnerable should he get there. It’s a big number and worth taking a shot with.

The fourth quarter, much like the second quarter, looks pretty stacked. Medvedev headlines both this quarter and the tournament. He is the reining finalist here and the reining champ of the US Open. His credentials on hard courts are surpassed in the last three years by only Djokovic and maybe Rafa - two fourth rounds and a finals at the Aussie, a final, a semi and a win at the US Open. He also won the Year End finals in 2020 and lost in the finals in 2021. Lastly, he is a full decade younger than Nadal. Medvedev helped carry Russia to the semi-finals of the ATP Cup a week ago, excelling not only in singles but also in doubles, while beating fellow Aussie Open contenders Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alex De Minaur and Matteo Berrettini pretty soundly (Matteo won a tiebreak but Medvedev was never broken in the match and was never really in trouble). You would think he’s motivated to tackle the trophy case, looking to separate himself from Thiem, Zverev, Tsitsipas and Berrettini (the four guys under 30 to make a Slam final on tour) and start chasing down Cilic, Stan and Andy Murray. However, as pointed out in the preamble, no one in the history of the Open Era has won their first two titles back to to back (and remember, the Aussie and US have always been held back to back, even when the Aussie was not in January) and they’ve had 55 years to attempt it. Andy Murray was the only one to back up a title with a finals appearance (2012 US Open and 2013 Aussie), so Meds will be at least trying to match that. Realistically, he is a deserving favorite and probably would have had a decent shot at beating a healthy Djokovic had he played - Meds was a +200 dog to Novak at the US Open five months ago and he dismantled him in straight sets (although Djokovic may have been pretty worn out). They also played in Paris last October, albeit only over three sets, and Medvedev closed the betting favorite (Novak won in three). So, if nothing else, it probably would have been an even final, had they met. Can anyone take him down now that Djokovic is out? It is hard to pinpoint just one person that could trouble him and should he make the final against anyone other than Rafa (who he has some demons against) he would be heavily favoured to take home the title. There are some landmines in his quarter though, though maybe not roadblocks. He’ll most likely have to face Nick Kyrgios in round two and while Nyrgios is never a serious title threat at a Slam (seven matches of effort has always seemed beyond him), the Aussie can rise to the occasion for one match. They would most likely get center stage at night in front of whatever number of fans the organizers feel comfortable admitting. Kyrgios, if motivated, could at least inflict some damage and court time on Medvedev (Kyrgios is 2-0 against Meds). His third round match will mostly be against Ugo Humbert. Ugo, like Kyrgios is 2-0 against Meds and just beat him last week at the ATP Cup. His fourth round match should be manageable if it is DSS or Cressy, but the quarter-final could be anyone from Auger-Aliassime to Cilic to Rublev. The Russian has a great head to head against FAA and Cilic but they have been two of the more in-form players in the first two weeks of the season and both have easier paths to the quarters than Meds. Rublev could be the biggest land mine - could you imagine a path of Laaksonen, Kyrgios, Ugo, DSS, and Rublev? That could wear anyone out. The +125 outright nor the -225 quarter price look appetizing despite Medvedevs current dominance.
The option in the fourth quarter that pops with value according to this model is Schwartzman. It’s pretty hard to take a flyer on him when he’ll have to run through Rublev and Meds just to get through the quarter, so it’s a pass.

There was potentially value on Auger-Aliassime at 50/1 when it appeared like Djokovic would be removed and Rublev would be shifted to the first quarter (I recommended that buy and took it on speculation). The thought process being he would avoid Rublev and maybe Krygios or Ugo would knock Meds off for him. However, the Aussie government took JUST long enough to make a decision that a Lucky Loser took Novak’s spot instead. It’s pretty hard to suggest an outright on FAA now given he is 0-5 combined against Rublev and Medvedev in his career (I am stuck with it though and it will be listed here).

Of the players not already discussed and who maybe don’t show value against this model, the one that sticks out the most is Jannik Sinner. He is sublime on hard courts, won a 250 event on these courts in 2021, made the fourth round of the US Open last fall and has won his last six tour matches dating back through the ATP Cup to the Davis Cup in November. Of course, no one in those six matches was really a tune up for any contender in this event but still, Sinner has looked dominant. He is also in the third quarter, which may have been the best landing spot - there is a real chance the winner of Sinner’s potential fourth round match with Ruud takes the quarter. Sinner is 20 years old now and seems poised to take the next step. If someone clears the way for him in the semis, chances are he would be favored over anyone not named Medvedev from the fourth quarter.

The best prediction here is that there will be chaos at the Aussie Open for the first time in a really long time.

Picks
Ruud +6600 outright
Auger-Aliassime +5000 outright
Sinner +1800 outright (I list the Bet365 number for now, I have not hit it yet because I saw other books with 30/1, namely Bookmaker. If that market re-opens before 6pm EST at a similar number I’ll hit it there.)
Carreno Busta +1100 1st Quarter

Good luck