ATP Adelaide and Melbourne 2022 Preview

I really meant to get this out yesterday but there have been so many withdrawals and lucky losers and then real work got in the way… so, this is at least 24 hours outdated. First tournaments of the year though, so have to have something.

Melbourne

I don’t want to bet on a 35 year old who hasn’t played tennis in six months. And Ivashka pulled out (after getting a horrendous draw). I took Opelka based not on his number but on his path - it looks like he’ll have to play two lesser clones in Cressy and then KA to get out of his quarter. The semis will be a crap shoot if it is Grigor or Botic. And, while I hope Nadal tires out before the final, there is always the hope that it won’t matter and Opelka crusies to his third title without facing anyone higher ranked than him. I took Opelka on the each way at 9/1 on Monday. It’s 11/1 now so books are happy to fade my action (or money just is tumbling in on Rafa).

Adelaide

I don’t want to bet on a 35 year old… oh, sorry, I wrote that above. Same thing applies here though. Cilic and KK both scare me in the bottom section as guys who have done well in Australia before and don’t have terribly hard paths. I only showed value on two guys and I can never bet on Tiafoe. I took Tommy Paul at 9/1 on Monday as a Monfils fade in the top half. He is down to 6.5/1 at Bet365 and I would still take that and will mark this pick as such.

Opelka 9/1 ea way
Paul 6/1