ATP Munich and Estoril

After two weeks of not seeing any real bettable value on the outright market, the absence is over. Time to get back at it with two little 250’s that decidely lack star power - just the way futures bettors should like them.

Munich

First off, notice the hold percentage in the Munich futures market. Usually Bet365 is sitting in the 30-35% range, maybe topping out in the 40% range at a Slam. I remember two years in Pune was the first time I recognized an outright market with something approaching 60%. Here, it’s sitting at 22%. That’s a first for me too.
Munich has been a real mixed when it comes to winners. It has been predominently won by European clay courters, with only four exceptions since the turn of the century (two Argentines and two Chileans). It’s been dominated by Germans, of course, with Philipp Kohlschreiber making the final a whopping six times. Recently, it has skewed young with Zverev winning back to back as a 20 and 21 year old and then Garin winning in 2019 as a 22 year old. And for a 250 level event is has had a surprisingly chalky winner a lot of the time. While Garin was a bit of a surprise winner in 2019, he has since become a staple in the top 25; Zverev was the #1 seed and the #3 seed when he won his two titles in 2018 and 2017; Kohl was the #4 seed in 2016 and 2012 when he won; Andy Murray was the #1 seed when he won in 2015. You get the picture.

So, I’m looking at some of the higher seeded players, especially the four with a bye. Munich is 1700 ft above sea level, not Kitzbuhel or Quito levels but, certainly not seaside. Therefore, I am looking for guys with a good serve that they can hold somewhere around 80% of the time. Lastly, I’m looking for guys with reps on clay already because if the three weeks since Miami have taught us anything, it’s that reps matter on this surface (in Cagliari, finalist Djere has played on the Golden Swing and in Marbella finalist Munar played the previous week in the Marbella CH as well as on the Golden Swing; in Monte Carlo semi-finalists Dan Evans and Casper Ruud both played the week before; in Belgrade both finalists Karatsev and Berrettini played the week before in Monte Carlo and in Barcelona both finalists Nadal and Tsitsipas also played the week before in Monte Carlo).

The easiest thing to eliminate is the guys who haven’t played much clay yet. Cuevas and Ruus haven’t played on clay yet while Korda and Sandgren only played one match last week.
After that, I’m getting rid of anyone who hasn’t been able to hold serve around 77%-80% of the time at least two of the last three years. That leaves Zverev, Krajinovic, Struff, Monteiro, Ruud and I’ll include Karatsev because he barely has any ATP data in 2020 and 2019.
Krajinovic has the bye in the second quarter and a pretty easy draw - two local wildcards ranked outside the top 100, a special entry who probably didn’t deserve to make the semis last week, and a lucky loser. My issue with Kraj is he has only made three finals on tour and none have been at any kind of altitude (Budapest, Stockholm, Paris).
Struff is on home soil but famously has never made a final. Monteiro is across an ocean and hasn’t won a match in Europe since October.
That unfortunately means looking at the three favorites. Karatsev played a ton of tennis in Belgrade and as impressive as he looked, after both deep runs he’s made this year (Aussie, Dubai) he’s bailed out early the following event.
Ruud went five deep at Monte Carlo, only losing to Rublev and there is no one in his path close to Rublev’s talent level. He doesn’t have a big, dominant serve but he holds his own deal over 80% of the time and he is comfortable at altitude, making the final in Santiago last year and the semis in Hamburg. Plus, I show value on his outright number.
I show no value on Zverev. But, this IS his event. He made the semis in 2016, losing to Thiem (no shame there), winning in 2017 and 2018, and then losing in 2019 to eventual champ Cristian Garin. He wasn’t healthy in Miami and didn’t look great in Monte Carlo. I’m not sure he’s healthy now. And +250 or +220 depending on where you shop, isn’t a great price. I suspect with this field he could probably win at half speed.

I think I’ll take my chances with the two guys I show value on and take a look at Zverev to see how healthy he is. Kraj’s quarter is just too easy to pass up at plus money.

Picks:
Ruud +550 outright, BM
Krajinovic +150 2nd quarter, Bet365

Estoril

Estoril is where we get to swing for the fences. The tournament has only been around since 2015 and it has been chock full of surprises. Every year has seen at least one finalist, and sometimes both, come kind of out of nowhere - from Kyrgios in 2015 to Almagro in 2016 to Gilles Muller in 2017 and hometown hero Joao Sousa in 2018. I certainly don’t think seeded players like Denis Shapovalov (two semis and one quarter on clay but no finals), Ugo Humbert (career 0.385 winner on clay), or Kei Nishikori (still struggling to find previous form) are real threats.
Garin is a real threat; he’s made a clay final on every continent they play clay tournaments on and in just about every country they play clay tournaments in. I show value on him, surprisingly, and his path, at least through his quarter doesn’t look like butter but it is certainly doesn’t look that complicated. He has the best, most consistent clay stats of anyone in the draw - and his success level at the business end of tournaments is better than those with similar stats in this draw (ARV, PHH and Cilic lately).
I show value on both ARV and PHH, coincidently but, they landed in the same quarter, along with Shapo and that looks like a bee’s nest. Furthermore, I don’t think any of them are trustworthy once they get outside the quarter.
I think the second and third quarters are wide open - I like the two young guns (I wish I could spell youths the way Joe Pesci says it) to win both but their prices suck. Alcaraz is only 9/1 to win the title and ADF is the same. For two guys who have both maxed out with one semi-final in their short careers (although ADF’s was here in Estoril).
No, I think I put all my eggs in one basket and take my long shot out of the fourth quarter with Garin. The number on Bublik seems crazy long; he’s played both Monte Carlo and Barcelona so he’s got some reps, his opponents in Martinez, Norrie, and Sousa should be easier fare than Chardy and DeMinaur. Garin and Bublik played a clay quarter-final in Hamburg last year and I’m betting on that again. I’ll take my chances with the winner in the semis against a tired Kei or a 17 year old Alcaraz.

Picks:
Garin +450 outright, Bet365
Bublik +4000 outright x 0.5, BM
ADF +225 2nd quarter x 0.5, Bet365