Cagliari and Marbella Outrights

The clay season begins in earnest as the Tour heads to Europe this week. The normal pre-Covid schedule which usually sees Houston and Marakech in these spots has been disrupted and fans are being treated to two new events, one in Marbella, Spain and one in Cagliari, Italy. Both are seaside towns, meaning we don’t need to worry about handicapping altitude and we can probably look at venues like Estoril, Umag and Rome as similar conditions. Cagliari is a brand new venue for pro tennis while Marbella is a yearly stop on the Challenger Tour, so we can look at some past results there.

Being seaside, with lots of wind, and in unfamiliar venues for the vast majority of the players, I expect a ton of breaks of serve (more than normal on clay) and maybe some fatigue later in the week for guys who have had some cross-Atlantic travel. Also, those breaks of serve should be plentiful (and the matches long) because there isn’t going to be a huge disparity in talent in these draws. With a Masters Series event being held last week and with a plethora of 500’s and 1000’s on the schedule in April and May these two events don’t have incredible fields. Cagliari doesn’t have anyone in the top 20 and Dan Evans at #29 is the only guy who (barely) cracks the top 30. That being said, there are only ten guys outside the top 75 in the draw on the bottom end and those ten include wunderkid Lorenzo Musetti, clay specialist and former Roland Garros semi-finalist Marco Cecchinato, as well as dangerous clay specific guys like Yannick Hanfmann and Andrej Martin. It may not be top heavy but the Cagliari field will be deep and even. As for Marbella, it is slightly more “star studded” with Carreno Busta and Fognini bookending the draw from the top 20. They are joined by young stars Casper Ruud, Davidovich-Fokina, Holger Rune, Francisco Cerundolo and Carlos Alcaraz but still, only four top 50 players are in the draw.

Let’s take a look at those draws.

Cagliari

Let’s start with some of the obvious. There is no venue history here. On top of that, the tournament favorite is a 19 year old, barely ranked inside the top 100 with 15 career ATP matches (his #90th ranking is largely built on Challenger results and two nice finishes in Acapulco and Rome). That’s got to be a first. Another first would be the look of the second quarter in this draw; here is my tweet from Saturday:

I’ll start with the fact that I don’t show any value on Musetti. The Italian has made the semis twice recently on the ATP Tour (already), once on clay in Sardinia (not far from Cagliari; same island) last year and once this year on slow hards in Acapulco. He has also made two Challenger level finals already in 2021 (one clay, one hards). But, I’m not sure I can bring myself to lay +400 or +500 on a 19 year old no matter good he appears. He is also in a pretty tough first quarter. Dan Evans is the top seed and he can probably be disregarded on clay (career 0.250 winner) but besides Musetti there is Dennis Novak, Laslo Djere and Federico Coria laying in wait. All three would consider clay their best surface by quite a margin and all three could give Musetti trouble (take that with a grain of salt, I know Musetti is -600 in round one vs Novak). I show value on both Djere and Coria in the outright market and considered both. Both Djere and Coria have shown a real tendency to be able to break serve and that is what I am looking for this week - Djere is 30% and 23% on clay the last two years and Coria is the best in the field with 29% and 31% the last two years. I stayed away from both just because they’ll have to go through each other and the Musetti. I expect one of the three to come out the quarter but I don’t see how you make money on that (Musetti is +162 to win the quarter, Djere is +333 and Coria is +650 - I’m sure you could spread some money somehow across those three and come out ahead if you want to use more than your fingers and toes to do the math).

The second quarter is a real mess. I’ve never seen something like this before. I don’t think any of the eight remaining qualifiers is a real threat (we won’t know who makes the draw till mid-morning on Monday, so we probably won’t see outright prices for any of them). Joao Sousa has been a mess for like two years now (he’s 12-21 straight up since January 1st 2019 on clay and if you exclude qualies and Challengers, he is 0-6 in his last six main draw clay matches). Basilashvili has been just as big of a mess (for very different reasons) until he won Doha out of nowhere three weeks ago. He quickly reverted back though, losing in the first round in both Dubai and Miami (albeit in three sets in both). It’s hard to trust that he is going to show up this week. Struff has famously (infamously?) never won a title nor made a final at age 30 despite spending the vast majority of the last six years inside the top 60 (he has spent a total of 13 weeks outside the top 60 since 2016 and he’s spent one week outside the top 100 since mid-2016). I don’t show value on any of them but I am intrigued by Struff. Could this be the week? Finally? He should get by Sousa. You have to figure he’ll be favored against either of the qualifiers he plays in round two and he’d be at worst a small dog, maybe a pick’em against Basher on clay. I’m not super excited that he played on Sunday in Miami but, he doesn’t play Monday, so that should be a full week to get ready and Sousa is coming from Miami too. He’s made eight semi-finals on the ATP and obviously lost them all; only one was on clay and that was way back in 2014. So, I am not hopeful he wins against the quarter one victor. I feel like I have to try and make some money off this ridiculous set-up so, I’ll take Struff at +150 to come out.

The guy I show value on in the third quarter is Cecchinato. He is an iffy cat. He’s made eight semi-finals on the ATP tour and four finals (all clay). He’s on home soil and he made the final up the road in Sardinia last year. He doesn’t quite break serve as much as Djere and Coria but is consistently in the mid-20’s. He is in poor form but he is coming off three weeks rest so he should be ready for a reset. There are landmines in his quarter, most notably Lorenzo Sonego. Sonego has wonderful clay stats, is 25, and is on a straight upward progression. But, he hasn’t played a clay match yet in 2021, he’s coming from Miami mid-week, and since leaving Australia this will be his seventh straight week of action. Tommy Paul and Yannick Hanfmann could both be problematic in round two as they both perform well on clay and both showed a great propensity to break serve last year. Hanfmann’s crazy ATP numbers are largely the result of one event, at altitude in Kitzbuhl though. If you remove Kiztbuhl and Gstaad (both up a mountain) Hanfmann is only 7-12 against the top 100 on clay in his career and Cecc should be able to handle that. Paul is scary and I’ll have to rely on the fact that he has yet to make a deep run on clay at the ATP level and he lost to Cecc in straights last year in Sardinia.

The fourth quarter is a real mixed bag of questions. I show value on Andrej Martin but I question whether he can get by somoene like Vesley in round one. Pella is a clay stalwart (hit the outright on him in Sao Paulo in 2019) but he’s been sick and has a lingering foot issue. Neither Bedene nor Fritz would consider clay their best surface but both have solid clay stats and could come out of the quarter. Really, between Vesely, Martin, Bedene and Fritz, I can’t pick a winner. Fritz has the worst hold/break numbers of the four and Bedene has the best but it’s only a 5% difference. I weighted return a little more than serve, which is why Martin pops (he is over 20% in both 2020 and 2019) but really I think I would need a bigger number on ny of them to get involved. Bedene, Vesely and Martin have all made clay finals on tour but none since 2018. I am a little tempted by Bedene at 20/1 but the path seems harder than Cecchinato’s.

Picks
Cecchinato outright 11/1 x1, Bet365
Struff 2nd Quarter +150 x1, Bet365

Marbella

Marbella has actually drawn a pretty solid field. There is a great mix of high ranked players, name branded veteran players, clay specialists and true nextgen stars. What is pretty unique is that of the top four players in the outrightmarket not a single one of them has played a clay match in 2021. That’s different.

Ruud leads the field and there isn’t really anyone in the third quarter who should challenge him. Mager is coming off a title here in Marbella last week; Kukushkin is a career 0.379 clay player; clay is Lopez’s worst surface and he’s 39 years old; Taro is essentially a Challenger level player at this point, having not made it past the second round of an ATP tournament since Tokyo in 2019; that leaves teenage star Carlos Alcaraz to challenge Ruud for the quarter - he seems able to compete but other than shocking ARV last year and beating an ailing Goffin this year, he hasn’t notched many wins yet. It’s hard to pull the trigger on Ruud though given his potential health - he’s only played three events in 2021, losing in the first round in Melbourne before retiring in both the Aussie and in Acapulco. Maybe he rolls but, my guess is he still isn’t healthy.

Two of the other three market leaders landed in the fourth quarter and there are too many questions there for me to get involved. Fog and ADF haven’t played on clay yet and Fog’s motivation is always in question, while ADF seems to continue having cramping issues. Dzumhur and Ivashka are far from comfortable on clay, Martinez retired from his last match against Sandgren, and Munar is coming off a final here in Marbella. I think the fourth quarter is an easy avoid.

The first quarter houses PCB and the star of the Golden Swing, Cerundolo. My number isn’t far off on PCB but he hasn’t made a clay final since 2017 and he hasn’t played a clay match since the French Open. He did make a nice run there though and his last clay title did come in Estoril which I think will show to have similar conditions to this week. I don’t think I can pick a winner between PCB and Cerundolo though. I don’t show any value on the young Argentine but that’s not surprising given his immense lack of ATP data.

What’s kind of funny is all three guys (I’m not counting a 39 year old Lopez) I show outright value on landed in the second quarter. Unfortunately, Delbo and RCB play each other in the first round, so that kind of rules them out. Londero hasn’t been good outside of South America, Gombos is largely a Challenger level player and Berankis and Pouille would not consider clay their best surface. ARV didn’t travel to the States, he’s rested, he gets the bye and then gets to ease back into action with either Berankis or Pouille before a tough quarter-final. There is a real danger for him in the semi-finals. Thankfully, he hasn’t played PCB in four years and after he suffered losses to both Cerundolo’s on this years Golden Swing you’d think he’s put some effort into figuring them out. The majority of ARV’s success has come at altitude in Quito, Cordoba and Gstaad but he does have a title from seaside Bastad and his two Cerundolo losses were in the semis and the finals. He is in good form and 12/1 isn’t terrible.

Picks:
Ramos-Vinolas Outright 12/1 x 1, Bet365