Doha + Marseille + Santiago

An outright winner… finally. First one since hitting the double in week one.

Now we get a week with three tournaments in three time zones across three continents on three different surfaces. Perfect. So very… tennis.

If there is one positive side-effect of the Covid situation it is that tennis fans will never see 250 events this loaded ever again. Both Doha and Marseille are loaded fields - Doha in particular has seven players in the top 20. Marseille is a little more top heavy but, Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Nishikori, Ugo and Sinner are a wonderful quintet.

Doha

Doha is one the Covid affected tournaments, being moved from early in the season back to post-Aussie Open. It usually runs at the opening of the season, it usually plays about average speed for an outdoor event (easing players into the speed of the Aussie Open) and it usually garners three or four top end players. Also, one of those top end players almost invariably wins this event. Since Nicolas Escudé in 2004 the only ‘surprise’ winner in Doha has been Gael Monfils and while he was a wildcard due to injury layoff, it isn’t like he was an unknown player or someone routinely outside the top 50 (or even the top 20). There won’t be a ‘surprise’ winner this year either. Not with Thiem, Federer, Rublev and Shapo heading the quarters. The next quartet are inside the top 20 too - Coric, Wawrinka, Goffin and RBA and the top of the field makes these four seem like ‘longshots’.

Thiem is the tournament favorite and like Medvedev last week in Rotterdam (and again this week in Marseille) I could see Thiem being less than focused. He’s crested the wave on winning smaller events (he’s up to 17 titles now, eighth on the active list and he should pass Tsonga, Cilic and Delpo this year for fifth… behind the Big Four, maybe you’ve heard of them) and should really be focusing almost exclusively on Masters Series events and Slams. Thiem has Dubai (twice the prize money of Doha) and Miami on the horizon in the next month before he heads to clay - with no Djokovic in Dubai I could see Thiem eyeing that title and then making a quick appearance in Miami (Miami will be UBER weird this year as top end players will have to go from playing consecutive weeks in Europe to hopping over to North America for one week/ten days before heading back to Europe for clay). Anyway, I don’t show value on Thiem and I’m a bit of a believer in Karatsev maintaining his form from the Aussie so this is an easy pass.

I am always down for betting on Rublev. I’ve hit outrights on four of his six titles in the past 15 months. Colour me Russian. He’s shown last year that when he gets rolling he can maintain it for extended periods and he is young enough to not tire out (he won back to back titles twice in 2020, travelling decent distances both times). I can almost get to his outright number too. But, I think maybe the draw is a little tougher than what he faced in previous title runs - there is a chance he goes Gasquet, Wawrinka, Thiem, Fed. First, that looks daunting. Second, I have to think playing those moneylines would result in a bigger return.

I show massive negative value on Shapo. That’s largely because his hold/break numbers aren’t actually high enough. He is a great example of someone who biggest wins come when he far outplays his statistics. I also think he excels indoors as opposed to outdoors and I think he drew a relatively tough quarter.

I do like Fed. That seems weird to say given he is coming off an 14? month absence. But, I doubt he would come back if he wasn’t ready (he has shown in the past he has an amazing read on his own body) and he was gifted a bit of a cakewalk if he is fit enough to take advantage. He hasn’t really been troubled by Dan Evans or Jeremy Chardy in the past and neither Basil nor Gombos should prove to be a problem in the quarters. I’m a little concerned about Goffin in the semis should it come to that but I’m confident he could make Shapo fold. The price on Fed’s outright dropped to +333 after the opening day of play and I don’t show an edge on that (I showed negative value at +375 too) but if I can get a +333 into the final against Rublev or Thiem that should be eminently hedgeable. The only 250’s Fed has played in the last five years are three trips to Stuttgart (2 titles and a SF loss to Thiem) and one trip to Brisbane (loss in F to Raonic). I should be able to make money here.

An additional reason I’m going with Fed is the longer shots that I see value on in the field don’t really appeal. Dan Evans number looks short according to my numbers but he gets Fed in round two and before he even gets there he has a re-match with Chardy, one of the hotter players on tour at the moment (Evans routed Chardy in Australia earlier this year). I also show value on Goffin. I have a tortured history with Goffin; he never shows when I bet him and he has one of the weaker records as a moderate favorite (-200 to -400) on tour. He doesn’t have much of a track record here in Dubai and he is on his third week straight of action with an entry in Dubai on deck next week. I make Goffin a decent favorite over Shapo if they meet up and while he probably loses as a slight favorite to Krajinovic in round one (that is TOTALLY in line with his career norms) it seems hard to pass up +350 to win his quarter.
I have no interest in Chardy, Bublik or Basil at +250000. I take it my model just can’t get numbers pushed out that far.

Picks:
Federer +333, x1, Bet365
Goffin to win Quarter 3, +350, x1, Bet365

Marseille

Marseille is a quick, indoor venue that is routinely won by big servers. There have been outliers for sure, Gulbis and Simon won this event in back to back years in 2014-15, but otherwise you are looking at guys who hold serve in the low 90’s or very high 80’s (Kyrgios in 2016 at 88%, Tsonga 2017 at 89%, Khachanov at 86%, and Tsitsipas the past two years).

The guy at the top of the board is Medvedev. I actually show some value on the Russian - I make him the favorite by a longshot. However, much like last week in Rotterdam, I have a feeling Medvedev will be at a little less than full motivation (see Thiem argument in Doha). He doesn’t have quite as many titles as Thiem but aside from the Slam his list is much more accomplished than the Austrians. Jannik Sinner looming in his quarter, who may be already near the top of list when comes to indoor results, isn’t something to get excited about either.

The only other player who shows value based on my numbers is Travaglia and tht doesn’t seem like a reasonable outright pick.

My plan here is to roll over Tsitsipas. He dominates this event, winning the last two years, plays great on faster indoor venues (see 2019 London Nitto Finals), four of his five titles are on indoor hards and he is actually someone who should be motivated here. Despite all his early accolades and success, Tsitty only has five titles. If you strip away the London Finals, which was a true case of getting ‘hot’ at the right moment (dismantled the week before by Novak, lost to Nadal in the round robin, eeked out a third set tb vs Thiem to win it), his other four wins are all at the 250 level. He plays better with less pressure and shouldn’t be looking ahead to anything - he is entered in Acapulco for the first time (vacation?) and then headed to Miami (he has two career wins there).

I think Tsitsipas’ price is super low (I make him closer to +700). I think if his path actually turns into a rejuvinated Nishikori, an in-formUgo and Medvedev, than I think his price clears +300.

Picks:
Tsitsipas ml rollover x1

Santiago

Are you surprised? Djere and Garin were my outright picks last week for good reason. They are the two best players in the draw. So, let’s run it back.

I’ll have some more to say tomorrow, a more robust view, if you may. But, thought I’d throw these out now. Hopefully the prices don’t change much tomorrow morning when the market re-opens.

Picks:
Garin +450, x 0.5
Djere +550, x0.5