The Rotterdam Next Gen and Buenes Aires

What a loaded field we get in Rotterdam. It’s a true Next Gen event with the four ‘next’ ones each headlining a quarter - Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Zverev and Rublev. That’s pretty fun. They are also represented in the odds, where they are all in single digits on the outright market and the fifth guy is… 20/1. There is plenty of ‘next gen’ floaters in the draw too including De Minaur, Khachanov, Humbert, Hurkacz, Coric and FAA. The issue with Rotterdam, of course, is that the winner is hardly ever a big ‘shock’. Only once in the past twelve years, Klizan in 2016, has a surprise player won the event (Monfils and Tsonga won it as non-seeded players but they were hardly surprises - I had an outright on Monfils in 2019).

As far as Buenes Aires goes, it’s the one event on the Golden Swing this year where we get most, if not all, of the ‘clay specialists’ (missing really only Ruud and Lajovic). The field is a big improvement on last week’s field in Cordoba too and therefore we’ll be getting some sweet matches as early as round two (which is interesting at a 250).

Rotterdam

Let’s start with Medvedev. He is coming off a disasterous final in Australia - a massive letdown considering the leadup. He has a tendency to let those letdowns carry forward too - after the Aussie 2020 loss to Wawrinka, he lost in the first round here in Rotterdam, after the 2020 US Open loss to Thiem, he lost in the first round in Hamburg. In addition to a possible handover, Meds has been dealt an unusually hard quarter for a #1 seed. Coric, De Minaur, FAA all loom at some point in his future and even if he was to get through all of them, I suspect he’ll be worn down before the semis and frankly, he should be focused on Miami.

I really wanted to be Zverev before I saw the draw. I think he is poised, if he gets all the off court stuff figured out, to really take a next step this year. His performance against Djokovic far surpassed whatever Medvedev produced a day later. It’s not the greatest draw though, he has a pretty spotty record in Rotterdam (two first round exits, a secon round exit and one quarter-final), and the price isn’t that great. I could still see Zverev in the final though.

Tsitsipas, like Medvedev, did not get any kind of welcome mat from the Dutch. Gerasimov is a tricky first match and then there are landmines like Hurkacz, Khachanov, and Wawrinka. The Greek also has a lesser than stellar record in Rotterdam - in fact, it’s worse than Zverev’s - he has one win in four trips. Like Medvedev too, Tsitsipas has quickly ascended to the level (back to back Slam semi-finals after some real no-shows) where he should already be focusing on Miami.

The one ‘Next Genner’, seeded, player who got the cake walk is Rublev. Ugo is the only two real threat (Struff has never made it past the quarter-final of a 500/1000 level event; Murray and Haase are not really ATP level players anymore; Chardy is playing his fifth event already in 2021; Goffin is coming off his first title in five years). You could argue Giron, in the first round, might be his biggest task - Giron just got his first top ten win in the fall in similar conditions, he stole a set off Zverev at the Aussie and he’s played through qualies here. I’m banking on Rublev being the one of the Next Gen who is actually still motivated by a title like Rotterdam (he’s yet to win a Slam QF, so he’s still a step behind his peers who are also in this event).

If you are looking for floaters, I’d be looking to fade either Med or Tsitty in the first and fourth quarters. Coric and ADM can be had at 6/1 or better to win the first quarter and both run well indoors (Coric has made the St. Petersburg final two years running; DeMinaur is over 70% on indoors). And I’d maybe dutch (ha, see that) Wawrinka and Khachanov at oth over 5/1 to win the fourth - I could see the winner of that first round match getting hot.

Picks:
Rublev +500 outright, Bet365
Rublev -105 to win 1st Q, Bet365

Buenes Aires

I had this plan to bet Garin outright in clay tournament he entered in 2021. I feel a little weirded out by the fact that he is one of only five players in the draw that wasn’t in Cordoba and hasn’t played a clay match yet in 2021 (Rune played ITF clay events). I guess one advantage is he isn’t coming down off a mountain and having to acclimatize to massively different conditions. The reverse, obviously, is that everyone else should be clay match fit (there were some marathons in Cordoba). I think the exciting thing is Garin got the desired draw. He shouldn’t have any stressful matches getting out of his quarter.

If I am looking to hedge my bet the guy I like in the top half is also coming in cold, with no match play. Lalso Djere is a true clay courter though (0.629 winning percentage on clay) and he has won titles on clay in each of the last two years. Like Garin, he won't have travel fatigue, he’s done the Golden Swing two pervious times now so he knows what he is getting into, he knows his chances of winning with deeper fields on Euro clay are super reduced and he’s made a semi final or a final in both of his previous South American trips. I think both DSS and Kecmanovic are opposable here - DSS because of nerves (see last week) in his home country and Kecmanovic just because he has come up small now four weeks running. Lastly, given his history on clay, his brief Golden Swing resume and the field, Djere’s price is outrageous.

Picks:
Garin +500, x0.5, Bet365
Djere +2200, x0.5, Bet365