Halle and Queens Preview

The oldest tournament on tour and the Federer Open… I wish I had more time to write and break them down.

Halle

I show value on Federer. I have to question his fitness though. I show value on Querrey but he proved last week he is still essentially a mid-card tiebreak machine - he had three wins over guys outside the top 100 and didn’t generate a break point when he played FAA.
I show value on RBA, he has a respectable head-to-head against Federer and Zverev and a great head-to-head with Medvedev. Grass is his best surface and I think he can get through.

I don’t show value on anyone in the bottom half. The two flyers I like are Khachanov and Monfils - Khachanov has a tough first match and Monfils might have the easiest quarter ever if Tsitsipas no-shows. He just doesn’t seem to have the stamina back yet.

Picks:
Bautista Agut +2200, Bet365

London/Queens

Pretty sure my model, like with my daily picks, just can’t push the odds out far enough and therefore I show value on Laslo Djere and Jack Draper. I won’t be betting either of them. I show value on Mannarino and grass is by far his best surface but he showed last week he is still not in good form (9 straight losses now).

That leaves Berrettini, who I show quite clear of the field. It’s not a sexy pick but, he shouldn’t be threatened in his quarter. Both Opelka and Cilic could pose problems and Reilly at +1100 was tempting. But, his serve should match either guy and he shows a better ability to break serve. I don’t show value on anyone in the bottom half and I wish, despite no history on the surface, that Sinner was closer to +1500. Might have been worth a flyer.

Picks:
Berrettini +450, Bet365