Toronto Outright Preview
The real run-up to the US Open is supposed to get going this week. But, Toronto (and the WTA version in Montreal) has suffered some serious withdrawals at the top of the leaderboard. There are four players from the top 10 not in attendence and six from the top 20. That being said, this is still an incredibly strong field. Of the 42 players with direct entry into the main draw only five are outside the top 50 - Kyrgios is mostly due to inactivity, he’s a top 50 guy, Brooksby seems destined to join Sinner and Korda as a “Next Gen” in the top 50 by year end, McDonald and Nishikori are certainly still climbing back after extended injury absences and Pospisil is the local wildcard (he’s still only #61, so not far off). That’s a tough field, loaded with land mines.
Toronto is a pretty hard tournament to handicap given it is the only event on tour that switches hosting cities on a regular basis. Knowing that Toronto is only every other year, you can throw out half the historical data. Secondly, Toronto (and the rest of southern Ontario) suffers from “lake effect” weather, which means there are occasionally stretches of crazy and pretty unredictable swings in temperature and precipitation. We generally get cooler summers but through July and early August there can be extreme heat and humidity. Monday it was over 30 degrees and the humidity was comparable to nights at the US Open like when Fed lost to Millman in 2018 (so you see weather reports that say 30 degrees, feels like 40). Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are showing similar temps but with high chances for rain, so this tournament (given the way some players reacted on Monday and the upcoming weather) could get off the rails quickly.
When looking at the results when the venue is Toronto there are hardly any surprises. The most recent addition, in 2018, probably had the biggest shock finalists, when Nadal played Tsitsipas (Tsitsipas was still ‘breaking out’ but it was only mildly surprising - he had still been playing Challengers in March, but by August he had made the semis in Estoril and the finals in Barcelona). In 2016 it was Djokovic and Nishikori, in 2014 it was Tsonga and Federer, and in 2012 it was Djokovic and Gasquet (remember 2014 Tsonga was a top 10 guy and 2012 Gasquet was a top 20 guy). So, we’re not looking at longshots this week.
Field
It feels like, after four years, I’m getting to know my model pretty well. I figured I’d be on Rublev and he is the ONLY player I show value on this week. He has the easiest draw of the big guns, he fits the bill as a top player on tour, it’s not a five set event so hopefully the humidity doesn’t destroy him like it did in Australia, and despite the fact that he hasn’t quite replicated 2020’s results he has still had one of the better 2021’s on tour (Rotterdam title, Monte Carlo final, Halle final all on different surfaces to go along with quarters at the Aussie and semis at Doha, Dubai and Miami - he effectively dominated the early hard court season). With a return to hard courts, I expect a return to peak Rublev.
I initially figured Tsitsipas had a tough draw. But in retrospect, while there are some big names in here, I see some holes. Karatsev has really petered out since making the final in Belgrade. He made two more third rounds after but hasn’t won back to back matches since mid-May. Maybe the grind of the ATP level has tired him out a little? It was a massive jump from obscurity for him. Ruud is not at his best on hard courts (still below 0.500 for his career), Cilic plays like he is 40 (and dropped a set to ARV on hards in round one), and FAA has been all over the map in 2021 (two finals, smoked in both again, and EIGHT (8!!!) first round exits). It feels like Tsitsipas’ hardest challenges will be his first two matches (Humbert and possibly Khachanov or Norrie, both pretty hot right now). Anyway, I don’t show “value” on the Greek but he is the closest outside of Rublev and I don’t mind his path.
Picks:
Rublev +750 x1, Bet365
Tsitsipas +500 x1, Bet365