Washington Preview
Washington is going to play almost like a watered down Masters 1000 this year - it gets its own week on the calendar and there are 64 spots in the draw. It’s basically the same as Paris-Bercy or Monte Carlo most years. The downside is that only Rafa is in attendence from the top 10 and only FAA and ADM have joined him from the top 20.
However, regardless of attendence, it is the only event on the card this week and the field isn’t that bad. Let’s dive in.
Washington
I’m looking for four things. I want guys who can hold serve better than 80% of the time and break serve better than 20% of the time, on hard courts. Of the last ten winners of this event (Kyrgios, Zverev x2, Monfils, Nishikori, Raonic, Delpo x3, Dolgo, Stepanek, Nalbandian) which covers us back to 2008, only Kyrgios in 2019 and Raonic in 2014 won with a break percentage below 20% (and no one has won below with a hold percentage below 80%). Kyrgios won all four tiebreaks he played and won two more sets in twelve games. Raonic won all five tiebreaks he played. So, additonally, I want someone with a positive tiebreak record. I also want someone who is rested. No champion here has ever played the week prior to the event and Stepanek was the only one who even played two weeks prior to winning in Washington. It’s hot, humid, and right in the dog days of the season before the real ramp up to Flushing Meadows starts; you don’t want a lot of travel and fatigue on your body. Lastly, I want someone who shows value against my outright numbers.
Nishikori shows value against my number, he has the right hold/break prerequisites and he has won here before. Unfortunately, he is travelling from Tokyo which actually seems like a good fade angle and he is in Rafa’s quarter.
Norrie has been in the US for a few weeks now and has been playing exceptional tennis (winning in Los Cabos and making the quarters in Atlanta) but that’s some serious travel (UK to the west coast, back to the east coast, Atlanta in sweltering conditions). I’ll pass.
Dimitrov shows value, has great hard court numbers and hasn’t played since Wimbledon. I’m going to stay away because he just hasn’t looked right since getting Covid last year and I’ve lost a bunch of money on him match-to-match.
I show value on Kyrgios but I am going to avoid him for three reasons. One, he played in Atlanta, including making the semis in doubles. Two, his break percentage on hard courts isn’t great and the idea of him repeating 2019 seems pretty far out there given his current conditioning. Which leads to three; he is talking woe is me again, mentioning retirement, trying to drum up interest and sympathy because he called out a fellow player on social media. Total headcase. No thanks.
I don’t really have a statistical reason to bet against Dan Evans. He has the requisite hold/breaks numbers, he should be rested, he’s played here before so he knows the conditions, he has a career winning record in tiebreaks. All three of his finals have come on outdoor, medium paced, hard courts and he won his first title this year in similar conditions. Probably worth a dart.
I love to attack the third quarter in tennis draws. There is usually tons of value. And this draw is no different. I show value on both De Minaur and Korda. Both guys haven’t played since Wimbledon, they both have career winning tiebreak records, ADM has always shown to be better than 80/20 on hard courts and Korda is this year (with a massiev shortage of data in 2020 and 2019 probably preventing similar stats). I think either could come out of this section and I suspect they’ll meet in the quarter-final.
I show value on Anderson but there is a solid chance his data is reliant on pre-injury numbers and his title this year was on the quick stuff in Newport. I think he may struggle here.
Picks
Evans +2200, x1 Bet365
Korda +1600, x1 Bet365
De Minaur +1200, x1 Bet365
Good luck