Wimbledon Preview

After a year away from the hollowed grounds, tennis is finally returning to All England Lawn Tennis & Croquet Club. It’s the best tennis tournament in the world and the most fun, in my eyes. At least it is the one I most associate with my childhood and love of tennis, and it USED to have the best day in tennis (the dearly Departed Manic Monday).

And the 2021 edition is proving to have tons of cool, potential storylines. With one of the biggest threats to win the title, Rafael Nadal pulling out, and the most decorated champion ever, Roger Federer aged and injured, the mantle is laid bare for another Novak Djokovic title. He’s the odds on favorite… by a lot, he is the maybe the best grass court player of all time, he’s possibly the most motivated player in the field, and yet he is facing the same issue he faced the last time he won the French Open - boredom? exhaustion?

To offset the looming Djokovic monster in the draw, we have an incredible list of NextGen players who are finally coming into their own. No one under he age of 30 has “won” a Slam over a Big Three guy yet, we’re still waiting. It has to come soon though, right? Djokovic is running out of contemporaries if Nadal can’t win on clay anymore and Federer can’t win on grass anymore. We had Delpo, who was an early member of the Lost Boys (there’s a throwback Twitter term!) that actually beat Federer and Nadal at the same Slam, but we lost him to injury. We had Murray and Wawrinka but they were more like the bad guys in an 80’s cartoon. Murray was essentially Skeletor or Megatron, there every episode and just lost to the good guys each time (he never beat Nadal or Federer en route to a title, beating Djokovic in two finals and being gifted a 2016 Wimbledon). Wawrinka was like that bad guy in the crossover episode, the Dreadnoks of GI Joe - come in once a year, kick everyone’s ass and then disappear (Stan beat two of the Big Three twice when he won - Rafa/Djoker at the Aussie, Fed/Djoker at RG - and he beat Djoker in the final at the US). Thiem and Cilic are the only other two who pre-date the Next Gen. Cilic was, like Del Po, an early member of the Lost Boys (he’s 32, same as Delpo). He peaked - one time, beating Federer at the US Open in 2014 and he’s not been the same player for quite some time. Thiem is neither a Lost Boy, a Big Three, a Big Three Foil, or a part of the Next Gen. He’s got the Asterisk Slam. Probably forever if he can’t recapture some form/health/motivation. And he’s not even here. But, with the last THREE Slam finals and five of the last six finals lacking a Big Three matchup it feels… so close.

Let’s see what’s in this draw.

First Quarter

Let’s start in quarter one with Djokovic. He’s the best. Full stop. Yet, the biggest advantage he has is actually not just his skill on a tennis court. It’s his familiarity with grass courts in particular. Wimbledon has been won by the least amount of actual people since the beginning of the Open Era for a reason - there are very limited events on grass each year. Each Slam is unique in it’s own way and some lend themselves to being won more often than others. The Aussie is at the very beginning of the year, form is not yet established and it’s in a pretty isolated part of the world in comparison to where the vast majority of players live. So, once you get good there, used to the travel, used to speed of the courts, you can win the Aussie a lot (Djoker, Fed, Agassi). There has still been 27 different winners though because all those factors can lead to chaos. The US Open is at the end of the year, players are exhausted from eight months of tennis, it’s humid as hell, and the courts are slower than the events surrounding it. Those factors lead to chaos as well - there have been 28 different winners of the US Open in the Open Era, including all of the “surprise winners” of the current era (Cilic, Delpo, Thiem). The French Open, before Rafa was the MOST chaotic of the Slams. Think of this, EVEN with Rafa winning 13!!! French Opens, there has still been 28 different French winners in the Open Era. A different winner, almost all the time between Borg and Nadal.
The Slam with the least amount of unique winners? Wimbledon. By a bunch. Only 21. Why? Because of the lack of grass events. You get good at grass, you can win. A lot. Borg, five. McEnroe, three. Becker, three. Sampras, seven. Federer, eight. Djokovic, five. This is the biggest advantage Novak has. There are only THREE players in his quarter who have even played 50 career matches on grass, all three are well past 30 and two of them have spent the last three years off the court more than on it. His draw should be a cakewalk. Sinner and Rublev may get there one day but the Italian is still without a win on this surface and Rublev is still terrible in tiebreaks, which is kind of a necessity on grass. Every decent clay court guy on tour, outside of maybe Ruud, landed in this quarter and you could make the argument the -450 on Novak to win the quarter is a bargin.

Second Quarter

The second quarter feels like a continuation of the first quarter; a red carpet for Novak. If you are looking for long shot outrights, this is place to look. Tsitsipas is the big seed and the new hot topic in tennis, having succeeded first Zverev and now Medvedev as the ‘next one’. He took Djokovic to the brink at the French and has made deep runs at the last three Slams. The issue is of course, as just previously discussed, he has no grass experience. He’s played Wimbledon three times, losing in the opening round twice and making a a run to the fourth round once beating three guys outside the top 100 in a gift of a draw. He’s never been to a final on the surface and he has loses to the likes of Denis Kudla, Nic Jarry, Tomas Fabbiano and Dusan Lajovic on his ledger. Maybe his big serve and his incredible tiebreak record will get him through the draw but, I doubt it. His path is a little tougher than his 2018 run and there is a chance he gets popped considering he chose to skip all the lead up events even though he has such a small surface history. Tiafoe, Pospisil, Mackenzie McDonald, Khachanov, Evans, Lopez, Alex De Minaur, Bautista Agut, and maybe even Reilly Opelka or Andy Murray all lurk as potential landmines. All good on grass. All hungry. All of whom have played some grass matches this year.
De Minaur looks tasty at 11/1 to win the quarter, coming off a title in Eastbourne. If he doesn’t get popped in the first round against Korda he will meet Tsitsipas in the 4th round. The issue is he is 1-7 against Tsitsipas. But… that one win did come on grass. Bautista Agut’s best surface is grass and at 10/1 he has a kinder end of the quarter than the Greek. But, his best days may be behind him if his results this spring are any indication. Opelka should have the game for grass but he still hasn’t seemed to figure it out yet and he is still below par in teibreaks, which is concerning. If Tsitsipas does manage to make it through all that, I do fear that Djokovic will run him over on his preferred court.

Third Quarter

The Third Quarter is by far the most interesting. It is loaded and really, could be it’s own tournament. Berrettini, Isner, Karatsev, Nishikori, Ruud, Auger-Aliassime, Kyrgios, Humbert, Fritz, and Zverev are all names to consider. Nishikori, like RBA seems past it though. Fritz is hurt and may not even play. Ruud is probably still a clay guy until he gets more practice on the green stuff, although I could see him making the fourth round this week. Karatsev, like Ruud, is probably just a tad untested on this surface (he hadn’t played on grass since 2015 until last week and he was pushed to the brink by Alejandro Tabilo). Isner is just a not a big game player and I’ve never understood the love he gets at these events. In 2018 he made a crazy run to semis here at Wimbledon. Other than that? Nothing. He’s never made it past the third round before or since. All his grass stats and success have come from Newport (he’s got 4 titles and 23 wins on Rhode Island). I don’t think he’s a threat here. Krygios is a guy who should be a threat. His game is perfectly suited to grass. And while he hasn’t won and titles or made any super attention grabbing runs he has a career list littered with “good” losses. If anyone could ever be upset about their draw luck it’s Kyrgios. His Wimbledon losses have been to Nadal, Nishikori, injury, Andy Murray, Gasquet and Raonic. That sucks. His non-Wimbledon grass losses have been to Wawrinka, Raonic again, Cilic in the semis at Queens, Federer, Felix and Berrettini. If only he cared… or, you know, played tennis… mabe one year but not this one. Ugo is the flavour of the month (post French Open, Tsitsipas afterglow), having won Halle, losing to Stuttgart finalist Auger-Aliassime and Mallorca finalist Querrey. It’s a great spring, he is holding serve 91% of the time, and he is 7-3 in tiebereaks. The concerning thing is his draw. Kyrgios to kick things off, presumably Auger-Aliassime in the third round, Zverev in the fourth round and Berrettini in the quarters. That seems rough. One thing I do like though, given his success thus far on the surface is Ugo contrasted with Aslan Karatsev, who as described above lacks grass experience.
Auger-Aliassime is another great future threat on grass. He went 7-4 in 2019, losing in the finals to Berrettini in Stuttgart, the semis to Lopez at Queens (Lopez won the event), and Cilic in the finals this year at Stuttgart. The other two times he has lost on grass were Wimbledon in 2019 and Halle this year, both times to Ugo. That’s a problem because Ugo is his potential third round event. We could get the two most in-form grass players head-to-head this Saturday. That leaves the two big seeds, Berrettini and Zverev.
Berrettini has won Stuttgart in 2019, Halle this year, lost to Goffin in the semis at Halle in 2019 and lost to Fed at Wimbleon. That’s quite the record - 16-2 at his last four grass events. He has held serve 210 times in his last 225 service games on grass, which is prime Federer or Isner on grass levels. It’s hard to imagine him losing to anyone in the draw not named Djokovic.
Zverev seems to have been left in the Medvedev/Tsistsipas dust. Can he bounce back at Wimbledon? Losing to Ugo and going three with Koepfer at Halle doesn’t seem to bode well. He hasn’t had a winning season on grass since 2017 when he was 20 years old. He definitely has the easier portion of the 3rd quarter than Berrettini but Zverev finds a way to drop sets to almost anyone so, while I think he can always do damage there is a good chance he’ll tire himself out before he faces Matteo in the quarters.

Fourth Quarter

The fourth quarter, much like the first looks drawn up for Medvedev. His grass history is actually pretty good - in 2017 when he was 21 he went 10-4 on grass, in 2019 he went 5-3, and he bounced back this year after losing to Struff in Halle by winning Mallorca. His game is suited to grass and the only person who looks threatening is Federer. A Federer who can’t get through a tournament since coming back from his surgery. Maybe he “finds” it again this week but losing to Basil, Andujar, FAA and barely beating Koepfer doesn’t instill confidence in making a seven match, two week run to a title.

De Minaur farther than Dimitrov +120, x1, Bet365
Humbert farther than Karatsev +137, x1, Bet365
Medvedev to win Q4 +162, x2, Bet365
Djokovic and Berrettini final +700, x1, Bet365
Djokovic and Medvedev final +500, x1, Bet365
Djokovic to win outright, -138, x4, Bet365