ATP Tennis April 23rd

Things are rolling. Other shoe should drop… imminently. After a horrible start to the year life has been better since Miami started; I’m 51-41-7 for +$1205 since that Wednesday the 24th.

Belgrade

No matter how I tweak my tennis model, and seriously I’ve scrapped it four times over, I can’t get it to price up the four digit favorites. I’m sure Djoker rolls, so I’ll ignore the “value” I may see on Kecmanovic. I imagine this line might be even higher if not for Djoker’s loss to Evans last week.
I show a little bit of value on Mager and I am tempted. Karatsev hasn’t exactly been blowing people away in his wins (outside of Harris in the Dubai final). But, this is Mager’s SIXTH straight week of tennis, he’s come through qualies here and has played almost an hour more tennis than fellow qualifier Taro Daniel (and loads more than anyone else left). He has to tire out at some point.
I show value on Delbo… again. I’m not sure my body can handle the stress. So, I did some digging. Delbo is surprisingly 11-5 on clay this year and 11-4 if you remove Nadal (as you always should). Even more shocking, I think, is that he has been priced up as the favorite 12 times in those 15 matches. He is 9-3 straight up as a favorite and he has covered the -3.5 spread 7 times. Taro has beaten no one, really, to be in these quarters - Millman is less than good on clay, Sousa is having a terrible last 24 months, he lost his qualifier match to Mager and Miladinovic is a local wildcard. I think Delbo could actually do this.
I show value on Berrettini. So much so. I can’t quite figure out how money was coming in on Krajinovic after the opener. Is it because he won 1 and 1 in his last match? But, look at the competition? I don’t get it. Berrettini might have been injured but he didn’t seem to struggle against Cecchinato. Money seems to have started to flow back my way. I didn’t quite get the plus money I wanted but -104 ain’t bad.

Picks:
Delbonis -3.5, -110, Bet365
Berrettini ml, -104, BM

Barcelona

I’ll copy and paste my Novak comments from above. Substitute Dan Evans for Rafa lost two sets and it’s the same point.
I show massive value on DSS here and I have to take it. Much like Berrettini, I don’t see it. And while I only got to -104 on the Italian, I did get +100 with DSS at Bet365.
I make the Sinner/Rublev match a dea nuts pick’em. Just a sit back and enjoy kind of match. Should be a banger.
I show value on Tsitsipas. The head-to-head has turned hard his way, he is in peak form, clay is his best surface, and FAA has shown a tendency to come up small in these kinds of big matches.

Picks:
DSS ml, +100, Bet365
Tsitsipas -4, -108, BOL