ATP Tennis April 25th

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I’d love a day or two where someone I bet on didn’t fold when serving for the match. Not a month or even a week, just a few days.

Belgrade

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This will probably be an unpopular opinion with most people but I make Matteo the favorite here. He opened almost +120 and has since moved toward a pick’em. I suspect money will continue to trickle in the Italian. Karatsev has four losses in 2021 (which is impressive in and of itself) and in all four of them he lost because his vaunted ability to break serve dropped off. He is breaking serve around 25% on clay so far this year (and he was breaking serve around 30% on hards). He broke Djoker twice at the Aussie (14%) but that’s only about half what he needed; against Thiem in Doha he didn’t break him at all across three sets and 15 service games; against Korda in Miami he never really showed up and obviously didn’t break the American; and lastly in Monte Carlo he failed in all ten return games to break Tsitty. Berrettini serves on the same level of those four. If Karatsev regresses at all on return, he’ll be in trouble.

Barcelona

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How do you not bet Nadal here? This line opened low (in my opinion) and continued to drop toward a pick’em. It started to move back toward Nadal after supper and I grabbed Nadal at -2.5. It will be a hard ask for Tsitsipas to win back to back titles and to do it on Nadal’s court. Tsitty has beaten Nadal twice but once was on a quick Aussie Open court and once was at altitude in Madrid. Nadal’s covered -2.5 in all six of his wins over the Greek.

Munich Quals