ATP Tennis April 27
I honestly don’t get the ‘break point conversion deficit’ I find myself in every day. It’s not like I don’t study this stuff. Intently.
Every SINGLE day, I have a match, or two, where the guy I bet on can’t convert and the guy I bet against is Mr. Clutch. Going into the last service game of the match on Monday Stebe was 6/12 and Coria was 7/8. Seven for eight. That’s 88%. Go look at like, I don’t know, the 250 matches that have been played since April 1st and find me TWO more matches like that. Just 1%. That’s all I’m looking for. And I’m not talking guys who go 1/1 or 2/2. That happens. But, once you get beyond two break points, it’s almost impossible to maintain 88%. Even 3/4 only means 75%. 4/5? Not good enough.
To top it off, even though I won a bet on Chardy, the frenchman went 6 for 17, while Munar went 5 for 11. Just constantly fighting an uphill battle. Constantly.
Munich
I show a little value on McDonald but Lajovic is a true ‘clay guy’ and could turn the corner anytime. I’ll pass on this.
I show value on Hanfmann but -3.5 seems a big spread to cover considering Taro is playing his best tennis since about 2018. Other than a tough loss to Lopez, since clay season started he has gone, QF, QF, SF. I’ll pass on opposing him.
Kohl is barely a pro tennis player at this point and I show value on Koepfer. I’m going to avoid this just because. It feels like Kohl could ‘turn up’ for one last swan song (here and Kitzbuhl are both kind of considered his ‘home’ events).
I can’t explain the Martin loss to McDonald in qualies. Bizarre. But, assuming he is healthy, he should be able to keep this close with Struff. The way favorites take money in tennis you can probably wait till closer to first ball on Tuesday and maybe get a +4.5. I’ll take the +4 now. Struff has played 24 matches in Munich; he’s 14-10 and he’s covered -4 only eight times. Four of those eight were qualies matches.
I really don’t like betting Basilashvili matches, you just don’t know when he is going to turn it on. But, since his surprise title in Doha he has two wins, which he followed up in a semi-final by losing 2 and 0. I show value on Monteiro but, the model doesn’t really take into account location - and Monteiro is Mr. Home Court. In Europe, he has three wins in the last three years - two at the 2020 French Open and one here in Munich in 2019 against Struff. That’s a rough track record to back. Who wants it less?
Galan rolled through qualies and he’s getting +3.5 games against Korda. Korda got beat in a close one with Bedene in Belgrade last week and I could see a similar match here. And Galan actually breaks serve a little more often than Bedene, so maybe Korda wins but, I doubt it’s a blowout.
I show value on Cuevas but he hasn’t played since the Aussie. The environment, at altitude, should suit his big serve (if it’s still a weapon at 35). Sandgren has won one match in 2021… I can’t get behind either of these guys.
Picks
Martin +4, -104, BOL
Galan +3.5, -111, BOL
Monteiro -2.5, -113, BM
Estoril