ATP Tennis April 28
Rough day, 1-2, down a hundred and change. Just bad calls. Almost didn’t take Monteiro, almost talked myself out of it, and still made the bet anyway. Monteiro was never in it.
Munich
I show value on Berankis but that is mainly just because I can’t get any model I work on to push favorites out above -1000. Zverev is a -6 or -5.5 depending on the book. He thrashed Berankis on clay at the French Open a few years ago and I think, healthy or not he should beat Berankis on Wednesday. Berankis took three sets to beat a kid I’ve never heard of in qualies, lost to Ivashka, got a LL spot and then barely beat Max Marterer who is 25 and ranked outside the top 200. I am always nervous with huge spreads though and while a -5.5 or -6 spread predicts a 63,63 scoreline, you can gain an extra game by taking the under. There are 19’s and juicy 19.5’s out there. I’ll take the 19 and hope for that 63,63 final (or better).
I basically nailed the line on Ivashka/MM, which is good because how do you pick a winner between two guys who are suddenly revelations on clay? I would lean McDonald here or the over. Either way, happy to pass.
I also nailed the Millman/Pella line. But, I feel like fading Pella here - his injury is not repairable and he hasn’t won back to back matches since the 2020 Aussie Open. Milllman is not traditionally a ‘clay guy’ but he’s notched wins in each of the last four weeks and once upon a time he made a final in this part of the calendar on clay (so maybe he was never that terrible at it?). Anyway, there are inexpensive +2.5’s out there.
I’m on Ruud outright, Cuevas got bagelled yesterday and is 35 years old coming off a three setter in his first match back after three months off and he got scheduled on back to back days (how did tournament organizers not put this match on Thursday?). I’d say it’s Ruud or nothing. I’ll probably wait and see how Cuevas looks, if starts slow it’s probably only going downhill.
Picks
Zverev/Berankis u19, -108, BM
Millman +2.5, -113, BM
Estoril
Should Cecchinato ever be a favorite? Even against a guy who can’t win on clay? Not in my opinion, at least not against a top 50 guy. I’ll take Ugo at plus money.
I show value on Chardy and you should never base too much on a small head-to-head sample. But, this is an easy avoid. Their one previous match was here in Estoril and ADF shredded Chardy. Additionally, I have an outright on ADF for the quarter.
I guess I’m a sucker for punishment, but I show value on Cilic and I’m happy to take him as a small favorite against a guy I had never heard of before this week (yes, kill me for not knowing someone ranked #331 and who was outside the top 500 last year).
Anderson has the serve to compete on any surface when his serve is firing (he hit 20 aces on Monday) and he gets a valued day off after a tough three setter in his first match in a month (Cuevas is seething). The over is probably an interesting option here but I suck at totals and I already have one on the card today.
Picks
Humbert ml, +130, Bet365
Cilic -2.5, -114, BM
Anderson, -2.5, -110, Bet365