ATP Tennis February 25th

I keep thinking I’ve hit bottom and then the next day, I dig a little deeper. Easily the worst start to a season and worst two-three run of my life. No answers.

Singapore

I basically nailed the Mannarino line. Mannarino is actually pretty solid in the Southeast - he’s almost 0.600 for his career in Australia/New Zealand/China. I don’t really show an edge and the spread is the dreaded 4.5. With how Marcora played in Pune last year (similar time of year, similar area of the world in a broad sense) this is an easy pass.

Hanfmann is basically a strict clay player. This is on a hard court. How do I show an edge on the German? Well, for one, Albot’s hard court stats are nothing special - last year Hanfmann actually surpassed Albot in hold/break numbers. Two, this court is playing like molasses (there has only been four tiebreaks so far and really if Popyrin could hold a lead, there’d be even less) - so Hanfmann actually should feel right at home (he laid the smack down on Duckworth in the first round). I’m also concerned that Albot was pushed to three sets by what should be one of the easiest wins on the ATP Tour in JP Smith. Will he be able to step up against Hanfmann? I think Hanfmann may have a shot at the upset here.

I show massive value on Kwon and he holds a solid 2-0 head to head over Uchiyama. I think this is an easy avoid though Kwon is playing for the fourth week in a row and has a travel schedule of Australia to Italy back to Singapore. No thanks. He was pushed to third set by Kwiatkowski, who he should have rolled. Also, Kwon is not known for going deep in tourneys - see Pune last year.

Millman owns a very one-sided 5-2 head-to-head over his countryman Matthew Ebden. But, I don’t show any value on either guy here. This line seems very accurate. I would assume Millman eventually wears Ebden out and I may look at a live second set bet if I’m awake and Ebden looks to be flagging.

Montpellier

I obviously show value on RBA here but how do you throw money on this guy? He’s lost three straight matches, been roughed up in those matches and is a top 20 player showing up for a bye (and probably a decent appearance fee) at a 250 event. This screams tank. RBA hasn’t gone deep at an indoor event in five years and I am not sure he reverses the trend here. Barrere had to go through qualies and the first round; he’s match fit, he’s used to the conditions, and being that he doesn’t often get this stage of an ATP (with a potentially tired Ugo Humbert waiting for him on Friday). I could see Barrere going balls to the wall. Barrere’s record against the top ten is not enticing (0-6) but he played Paire, Rublev and Khachanov all tight. Pass.

I basically nailed the Lajovic line. There is no value here. I really want to see how motivated Lajovic is though. If Novak is not too nervous and holds a few early games, I could see a live play on the Austrian. He has surprisingly amazing indoor hard court results (on the CH tour, of course). If Lajovic is just picking up a paycheque or is in some other way unmotivated I may have a play on Novak live.

Vesely rolled over Mikael Ymer yesterday and had some astonishing stats - 10 aces, 87% of first serve poins won, oh, and of course, he broke serve five times.

Bedene and Gerasimov should be a little bit of a serve fest on centre court. Gerasimov has a strong indoor game and Bedene can hold his own on any surface. Their hold/break numbers on a hard court are pretty similar and I see this one going pretty long. It’s too bad the line is 23 - that’s a terrible number. But, I really see 76,75 kind of score; Bedene has played a 12 or 13 game set in five of six matches so far in 2021 and Gersimov is five of seven.

I show tons of value on Hurkacz here. I am going to have to avoid this though. His stats are far better on a hard court than ADF’s but the line being so off is concerning. Hurkacz has not looked great since winning the Delray Beach title (and he was actually a little shaky in Delray too). ADF actually beat Hurkacz at the US Open last year and hurkacz is my last outright in Montpellier, coming in cold in his first match against someone who already has a match in this week. Easy pass here and pray for the outright.

Cordoba

In the morning when all the lines are up.

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