ATP Tennis Winston-Salem Day 3
My own worst enemy… again. Backed a guy who was in his first ever main draw match and he was subsequentially super competitive right up until he was broken in consecutive service games to end the match (and NOT cover). Then I made a horrible live bet on a guy who won the first and third sets 61,63. Of course, I bet him to win the second set. Because, why would he do that?
Tuesday
I show value on six guys. Ivashka has been running good all year but his recent wins on hard courts have been unimpressive - Monfils, Kuku, Gerasimov, Grigor, Krueger and Seppi. Monfils and Dimitrov are two of the biggest exploiters of Covid points (I’m no expert on ATP ranking points but Monfils has about 1,800 points that pre-date the Coivd stoppage in April 2020; remove those and he would be ranked about 120th. Dimitrov has about 1,100 points that pre-date April 2020 and would be ranked about 60th). Six wins outside the top 50? Cilic may not have many wins but, he won Stuttgart and has gone 7-5 since. Due to his rank he has faced adversity early each week. His five losses? DeMinaur, Carreno Busta, Medvedev, Ruud, Rublev. Aside from DeMinaur that is an amazing collection of 2021 stars (and oh, by the way, De Mianur won the semis the week he beat Cilic and won Eastbourne the next week - his horrible slide started after that run).
Somehow, I show value on Gilles Simon. Never bet Gilles Simon. In fact, given his recent show of ‘caring’, I’m tempted to bet Paire on the moneyline just based on ‘gut feel’.
I show value on PHH and that is nerve wracking considering his only win since May was on Saturday against a guy ranked 1700th in the world. That being said, he has some tough five set losses in that streak and Coria is atrocious on hard courts. Coria was maybe gifted a win yesterday against a broken Musetti (see: the French Open).
I show value on Mikael Ymer. I never like betting on the Ymer brothers, they always seem to disappoint. ARV won their only head-to-head 61,60 but that is pretty deceiving given Miakel was 15 at the time. ARV isn’t winning much on hard courts and he is 0-4 career here in Winston-Salem. That being said, he had a nice showing in Cincy last week, even in a loss. Weirdly, Ymer is 16-8 against lefties across both tours and I think I’ll risk the biscuit.
I’m supposed to avoid Tiafoe matches. But, I show value on Andy Murray, he rolled Noah Rubin 62,60 (unusual circumstances to be sure), and he was granted direct entry into the US Open next week. So, I think he’ll throw it all out there today.
I show value on Goffin but that is pretty still fairly hevaily influenced by priors. He has lost five or six matches in a row and I don’t think he has won a match since April. Not even worth digging into.
Picks
Cilic ml, -110, Bet365
PHH -3, -107, BOL
M. Ymer ml, -123, BM
A. Murray ml, +106, BOL
Paire ml, -138, Bet365