Istanbul CH January 22nd

Giustino couldn’t hold serve and my over went down the drain pretty quickly. I should have just stuck with the value I showed on some of the players as Bonzi and Rinderknech both won fairly handily in the end.

I’m now down 14 units on daily plays which is… bad. The lowest I got at any point last year was -20. Hopefully I can survive till the ATP tour resumes.

I show value on all four favorites today. Complete opposite of yesterday. I’m going to dig in and see if there are any I want to avoid.

Kovalik is a predominately clay player and Kirkin hasn’t dropped a set yet. Kovalik is the biggest favorite on the board and that seems like an easy thing to avoid. Kovalik hasn’t been past the second round of a non-clay tournament since Sofia in 2018 (when he totally upset my outright pick in Baghdatis). I’ll pass.

Rinderknech has maybe been the most impressive player I’ve seen this week. I haven’t watched every match, for sure, but I’ve seen his two main draw ones and they were impressive. Including qualies he’s only dropped one set and it was a tiebreak to Nakashima. I’ll take Rinder on the juicy moneyline at BOL.

I’m a little disappointed I didn’t grab Bonzi yesterday. Today, these guys opened as roughly pick’ems and the money has come in on Hoang. Bonzi is now +100 at Bet365 and +103 at BOL. I make Bonzi a slight favorite and in the interest of CLV I’ll continue to wait and then fade this steam.

I’ve been on Safwat both rounds. And I’ll ride him again here. He’s playing inspired tennis (he could have easily folded against Gaio yesterday) and I make him over -200. He’s the biggest edge today based on my numbers.

Picks:

Rinderknech ml, -135, BOL
Safwat ml, -117, BM
Bonzi ml, hopefully +105 or even +110, waiting for a better line