Istanbul CH January 23rd

A beauty 2-0 day. Most importantly, the market seems to be agreeing with me, as all three bets closed with incredible CLV (Soeda pulled out before the match but Safwat was -139 at the time). That’s such a good sign.

Some very different openers out there; again, like yesterday, a real demarcation between American and Euro books. So, I snapped up Safwat early.

I do think Rinderknech gets it done but the pricing looks about right with where I am. I show a 4% at BOL, which is the cheapest of the three books up. I don’t want to spend on the spread, as that hasn’t worked out too well in Istanbul for me. Rinder played wonderfully on indoor hards at this time of year in 2020 - making three finals (Rennes, Calgary, Calgary) in five weeks and winning two of them. I have been trying to avoid parlays this year and last, but if you had a suitable partner, this is probably a great parlay piece.

I did grab Safwat at +4.5 at Bet365. The juice is -125. You can use the alt spread at BM or Pinny to get it at a slightly bigger price (-130 and -127) (BOL doesn’t offer alt spreads). Bonzi might well win, but this line is crazy. Hopefully it’s tight. Bonzi has actually covered this number in his last 18!!! hard court wins, dating back to before the COVID break. Hopefully Safwat is a bit of a step up in competition though - or at least that is what I am projecting (about half of Bonzi’s wins were at ITF level or smaller CH events).

Picks:
Safwat +4.5, -125, Bet365