Istanbul CH January 24
Whoa boy. Got so despondent I went to bed with Safwat down 6-7,0-1* because it really looked like a movie I had seen 100 times before. It’s probably a good thing I didn’t stay up to see him down 6-7,0-3* because then I would have been so mad I wouldn’t have been able to get to sleep.
As it is, I woke to a winner. Always fun. Apparently, nice fight from Safwat. He was a money train this week - I bet him every match.
If you were to go back in time to, like, Tuesday, you could probably actually have predicted this final. Two guys playing extremely well and beating top notch opponents - you could argue Nakashima, Huesler, Hoang were the three “best” players in the field - and doing it pretty handily. Rinderknech has only dropped three sets all season, including just one this week (two vs Mmoh in Aussie qualies and one to Nakashima this week). He is on fire. But, he has been pushed a little harder in the last two matches - going 7-5 in the first set with both Huesler and Kovalik. I see Bonzi actually being a bit of a step up and I make the final a pick’em. That means I show almost 25% value on Bonzi. Like Rinderknech, he has rolled through some decent competition this week and only dropped one set. That one lost set was to the guy I had ranked highest in this field (Hoang) so, I think Bonzi is playing top level tennis (for him). Safwat, Hoang, and wunderkid Musetti is a solid run this week. The concern I have with just taking Bonzi on the moneyline, as my model dictates, is his limited history in finals. He has never won a CH title and both finals he has made have been not particularly close losses. Rinderknech, on the other hand, as I have mentioned a few times this week made three finals just last year, winning two.
Maybe Bonzi’s time has come and my model is right. Maybe the fact that Rinderknech’s margin of victory has decreased each round this week makes my model right. Maybe the fact that money is coming in on Bonzi early (he opened +149 and it is already +146 as I bet it) means the market agrees with my model. Either way, I’ll chicken out and take the plus games.
Picks:
Bonzi +2.5, -121, BOL