Quimper and Antalya CH Daily and Outright Preview January 25
After complaining for years that Challenger events have never had outright options, suddenly, in the middle of a global pandemic, the tennis community is blessed with options galore. I’ll be taking it easy first time out (as I certainly wouldn’t have predicted a 25/1 shot and a qualifier to make the first CH final of the year).
There is also a handful of Monday matches to go over in both Quimper and Antalya.
Antalya Outright
The only book I have access to that is posting Antalya outrights is 1xBet. I have found someone who is willing to help me get down there so, I will tentatively check out these outrights. The hold on the market is reasonable at 22% (more on this in Quimper!) so I don’t feel too bad.
I show quite a few people with value, at least based on my numbers. My immediate thought is to throw out the guys who are predisposed to clay and anyone who doesn’t favour hard courts over grass and clay. I’m also biased to players who have at least made finals before (especially based on what I saw in Istanbul).
Of the people I show value on , Ilhan, Ilkel and Escobedo are the three highest. All three favour hard courts; all three are above 0.500 on hards when you look at their ATP and CH level records; Escobedo and Ilhan have favourable tiebreak records. Ilhan had a poor 2020 and hasn’t won a match in 2021, so he is out. Ilkel and Escobedo both consistently have top quartile hold/break numbers across the last three years in comparison to this field.
Another option I like, even though I show no value against the market is Altmaier. He is the favorite accoridng to my numbers and the second favorite in the market.
Ilkel 99/1, x0.33
Escobedo 49/1, x0.33
Altmaier +545, x0.34
Quimper Outright
The Quimper tournament actually has two books with available outright odds for me. But, now, look at the crazy hold percentages. Wildly different. And, it’s therefore, not surprising that I don’t show any value here. My market leader is pretty similar to the books offerings though. And this is a much deeper field. I think the benefit for Korda is that he is polar opposite to Luca Pouille, the obvious elephant in the room. Pouille has'n’t played tennis in forever, so hopefully he gets upset before he has a chance to take down Korda in a presumptive final.
Korda made the Delray final a week ago and if he carries that form here, he should do just fine.
Korda +590 x1
Antalya Daily
I show value on Mayer and Munar but, I will pass on them just because it’s their first match of the season and their respective opponents have both played four matches across two weeks.
I’ll pass on Ilkel as I am already on him outright with a serious longshot.
I will hit Giustino, Escobedo and Musetti though.
Quimper Daily
Graphic to follow…
Picks
